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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >An approach for forecasting of public water scarcity at the end of the 21st century, in the Timid Plain of Romania
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An approach for forecasting of public water scarcity at the end of the 21st century, in the Timid Plain of Romania

机译：预测罗马尼亚21世纪末公共场所水资源短缺的方法

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摘要

The balance between water demand and availability in Romania, as well as in many areas of Europe, will soon reach a critical level if predictions by simulated climate change scenarios are correct. The article is focused on the risk of water shortages, due to the climate change, in the Timis Plain in Romania, a densely populated region, with 346,818 inhabitants. Estimates of future water availability for public water supply consider relevant socioeconomic scenarios for major water users, estimate their future water demand, and assess water shortage for the main users. The water demand components were estimated for households, industries, services, and livestock, based on specific socio-economic assumptions. A non-probabilistic risk assessment, using simplified fuzzy sets mathematics, considers water supply, water demand and the consequences of water shortage. The results of the study revealed a vulnerability of the water supply and sewerage networks, an expected increase in households' demand, in the rural and in the urban, an expected increase for industrial and services water demand and a positive dynamic for the livestock water demand and finally a water shortage in the study area. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：如果模拟的气候变化情景的预测是正确的，罗马尼亚以及欧洲许多地区的水需求与可利用性之间的平衡将很快达到临界水平。这篇文章的重点是由于气候变化而导致的罗马尼亚蒂米斯平原（因人口稠密而有346,818名居民）因气候变化而导致缺水的风险。对公共供水的未来可用水量的估算考虑了主要用水户的相关社会经济情景，估算了其未来的用水需求，并评估了主要用水户的缺水情况。根据特定的社会经济假设，估算了家庭，工业，服务业和牲畜的需水量。使用简化的模糊集数学进行的非概率风险评估考虑了供水，需水量和缺水的后果。研究结果表明，供水和排污网络存在脆弱性，农村和城市的家庭需求预期增加，工业和服务业用水需求预期增加，畜牧业用水需求呈积极态势最后是研究区域的水短缺。 （C）2017 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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