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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Critical review of: 'Making or breaking climate targets - the AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy'
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Critical review of: 'Making or breaking climate targets - the AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy'

机译：批判性评论：“达成或打破气候目标-AMPERE对分阶段加入气候政策情景的研究”

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This critical review of the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) research underlying the AMPERE study is also relevant to many other IAM-based model comparison papers. One of the main symptoms of the serious methodological problems of these studies is that the results produced by different models for what are portrayed as the "same" scenarios differ quite substantially from each other. While the authors of the AMPERE study correctly raise the important question of whether these differences are due primarily to differences in model structures, or to differences in the sets of input assumptions for the "same" scenario used by different research teams, they never address this question in a logically systematic and credible way. In fact, they cannot and do not arrive at an answer, since each modeling team generally relies on a single but different set of most input assumptions for the same scenario. Finally, the research teams involved in the AMPERE project, and other similar projects, fail to understand the fundamental impossibility of forecasting net mitigation costs or benefits over the long run given both the practical and deep uncertainties implicit in both the equations comprising these IAMs, and the input assumptions on which they rely. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：这项对基于AMPERE研究的综合评估模型（IAM）研究的重要评论也与许多其他基于IAM的模型比较论文有关。这些研究中严重的方法学问题的主要症状之一是，对于描述为“相同”场景的不同模型，得出的结果彼此之间存在很大的差异。尽管AMPERE研究的作者正确提出了一个重要问题，即这些差异是否主要是由于模型结构的差异，还是由于不同研究团队使用的“相同”场景的输入假设集的差异，但他们从未解决过这一问题。以逻辑上系统和可信的方式提问。实际上，他们不能也不会得出答案，因为每个建模团队通常都针对同一场景依赖一组不同的大多数输入假设。最后，考虑到构成这些IAM的两个方程式所隐含的实际和深远的不确定性，参与AMPERE项目和其他类似项目的研究团队无法理解从长远来看预测净减排成本或收益的根本可能性。他们所依赖的输入假设。 （C）2015 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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