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Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?

机译：面向未来的技术分析（FTA）中的定量和定性方法：从组合到集成？

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摘要

The FTA community relies on a set of disciplines and methods, which try to better understand and shape the future from different methodological perspectives. Whilst the community has grown since the first edition of the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), there is still little dialogue and exchange between those applying quantitative and those applying qualitative methods. The FTA events have, since the beginning, provided an avenue to debate methodological aspects and this paper summarises and furthers the discussion developed during the 2011 edition, building on the debates at the conference and between members of the conference Scientific Committee, to which the authors of this paper belong. In particular this paper describes the methodological state of the field through a tripartite taxonomy of increasing levels of qualitative and quantitative integration. It shows how significant progress has been made for simpler forms of combinations but not for more sophisticated (and perhaps more promising) ones. Following that, it suggests that an epistemological divide, common to the social sciences as a whole, combined with cultural differences and misconceptions within the FTA community are amongst the factors undermining further methodological integration. The paper concludes by suggesting some steps, combining research and practice, to overcome such barriers.
机译：FTA社区依赖一套学科和方法，它们试图从不同的方法论角度更好地理解和塑造未来。自第一届塞维利亚面向未来的技术分析国际会议（FTA）以来，社区已经发展壮大，但采用定量方法和定性方法的人们之间仍然很少进行对话和交流。自一开始以来，自由贸易协定活动就为方法论方面的辩论提供了途径，本文根据会议的辩论以及会议科学委员会成员之间的辩论，总结并进一步推动了2011年版会议期间的讨论。本文属于。特别是，本文通过定性和定量整合水平不断提高的三方分类法描述了该领域的方法论状态。它显示了更简单的组合形式取得了显着进步，而更复杂（也许更有前途）的组合却没有取得显着进步。在此之后，这表明，整个社会科学普遍存在的认识论鸿沟，以及自由贸易协定社区内部的文化差异和误解，是破坏进一步方法整合的因素之一。本文最后提出了一些将研究与实践相结合的步骤，以克服这些障碍。

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