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Quantifying the development of agreement among experts in Delphi studies

机译：量化Delphi研究专家之间达成协议的过程

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摘要

Delphi studies are often conducted with the aim of achieving consensus or agreement among experts. However, many Delphi studies fail to offer a concise interpretation of the meaning of consensus or agreement. Whereas several statistical operationalizations of agreement exist, hardly any of these indices is used in Delphi studies. In this study, computer simulations were used to study different indices of agreement within different Delphi scenarios. A distinction was made between the indices of consensus (Demoivre index), agreement indices (e.g., Cohen's kappa and generalizations thereof), and association indices (e.g., Cronbach's alpha, intraclass correlation coefficient). Delphi scenarios were created by varying the number of objects, the number of experts, the distribution of object ratings, and the degree to which agreement increased between subsequent rounds. Each scenario consisted of three rounds and was replicated 1000 times. The simulation study showed that in the same data, different indices suggest different levels of agreement, and also, different levels of change of agreement between rounds. In applied Delphi studies, researchers should be more transparent regarding their choice of agreement index and report the value of the chosen index within every round as to provide insight into how the suggested agreement level has developed across rounds.
机译：进行Delphi研究通常是为了达成专家之间的共识或共识。但是，许多Delphi研究未能提供对共识或协议含义的简洁解释。尽管存在协议的几种统计可操作性，但是在Delphi研究中几乎没有使用任何这些指数。在这项研究中，计算机模拟被用来研究在不同的Delphi场景中不同的协议指标。共识指数（Demoivre指数），协议指数（例如Cohen's kappa及其概括）和关联指数（例如Cronbach's alpha，类内相关系数）之间有所区别。 Delphi方案是通过改变对象的数量，专家的数量，对象评级的分布以及后续回合之间达成协议的程度来创建的。每个场景由三轮组成，并重复了1000次。模拟研究表明，在同一数据中，不同的指标暗示不同程度的一致性，并且各回合之间的一致性变化程度也不同。在应用的Delphi研究中，研究人员应在选择协议指数时更加透明，并在每一轮报告中报告所选指数的价值，以便深入了解建议的协议水平如何发展。

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  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2013年第8期|1607-1614|共8页
  • 作者

    J.V. Meijering; J.K. Kampen; H. Tobi;

  • 作者单位

    Research Methodology Croup, Social Sciences, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706KN, Wageningen, The Netherlands;

    Research Methodology Croup, Social Sciences, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706KN, Wageningen, The Netherlands;

    Research Methodology Croup, Social Sciences, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706KN, Wageningen, The Netherlands;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Delphi; Consensus; Agreement; Association; Methodology; Simulation;

    机译：德尔斐共识;协议;协会;方法;模拟;

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