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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >The Delphi method as early warning Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands
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The Delphi method as early warning Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands

机译：德尔菲方法作为预警，将全球社会趋势与荷兰未来的激进化和恐怖主义联系起来

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A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion ('dissensus'), as opposed to convergence ('consensus'). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research.
机译：进行了一项德尔菲研究，以回答以下问题：荷兰有哪些全球社会趋势与未来激进化和随后的恐怖主义有关？概述了全球200种社会趋势，并对激进主义进行了文献研究，作为Delphi研究参与者的简介。前两轮以匿名形式进行。第三轮是面对面的焦点小组会议。在第一轮和第二轮中，参与者对趋势进行了评分，相对于其他参与者调整了分数并提供了论据，在焦点小组会议中，讨论了主题，参与者仍然对此持强烈反对意见。这种方法强调意见分歧（“分歧”），而不是意见分歧（“共识”）。对我们寻求共识似乎是Delphi的主要应用，但是我们强调寻求异议的价值。我们假设在所讨论的相反观点得以保留的情况下，本德尔福研究可能发现了未来激进主义的预警。本文的实质是，可以通过有限的努力来解决这一问题。影响未来激进的全球社会趋势的复杂且定义不清的主题。 Dissensus Delphi方法的应用提供了一些预警，可以在将来的研究中加以探讨。

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