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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach - A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies
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Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach - A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies

机译：验证创新的实时Delphi方法-实时与常规Delphi研究之间的方法学比较

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摘要

A novel and innovative real-time Delphi technique is introduced in order to address previously identified weaknesses of the conventional Delphi method, such as complicated facilitator tasks, lack of real-time presentation of results, and difficulties in tracking progress over time. We demonstrate how the real-time (computer-based) method increases the efficiency of the process, accommodates expert availability, and reduces drop-out-rates. Modifications in the Delphi procedure (e.g. change of iteration principle) not only increase efficiency but also change the nature and process of the survey technique itself. By identifying and analysing three individual effects (initial condition effect, feedback effect, and iteration effect) we examine whether the modifications in the survey process cause deviations to the survey results. Empirical data obtained from both conventional as well as real-time Delphi studies is analysed based on multiple statistical analyses. The research findings indicate that significant differences between the two Delphi survey formats do not exist and final survey results are not affected by changes in the survey procedure.
机译：为了解决以前发现的传统Delphi方法的弱点，例如复杂的协调员任务，缺乏实时的结果表示以及随时间推移跟踪进度的困难，引入了一种新颖且创新的实时Delphi技术。我们演示了实时（基于计算机的）方法如何提高过程效率，适应专家的可用性并降低辍学率。修改Delphi程序（例如更改迭代原理）不仅可以提高效率，还可以改变测量技术本身的性质和过程。通过识别和分析三个单独的影响（初始条件影响，反馈影响和迭代影响），我们检查了调查过程中的修改是否引起调查结果的偏差。从常规以及实时Delphi研究中获得的经验数据都基于多种统计分析进行了分析。研究结果表明，两种Delphi调查格式之间不存在显着差异，并且最终调查结果不受调查程序更改的影响。

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  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2011年第9期|p.1681-1694|共14页
  • 作者

    Tobias Gnatzy; Johannes Warth; Heiko von der Gracht; Inga-Lena Darkow;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management. EBS Business School, Soehnleinstrasse 8A, 65201 Wiesbaden, Germany;

    Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management. EBS Business School, Soehnleinstrasse 8A, 65201 Wiesbaden, Germany;

    Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management. EBS Business School, Soehnleinstrasse 8A, 65201 Wiesbaden, Germany;

    Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management. EBS Business School, Soehnleinstrasse 8A, 65201 Wiesbaden, Germany;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    real-time delphi; conventional delphi; foresight; methodological comparison;

    机译：实时德尔福常规德尔福预见方法论比较;

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