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Discussion of Huebner Article

机译：Huebner文章的讨论

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The article by Huebner is a welcome change to the voluminous publications on acceleration, singularity, catastrophe and the like. Too much is being said on rampant change riding exponential runaway patterns uncontrollably and disastrously. But there are a couple of difficulties that I have with Huebner's approach. The first one has to do with counting innovations. Huebner draws exclusively on 7198 "important events in the history of science and technology" as compiled by Bunch and Hellemans. Compiling lists of "important" events is a process that inherently suffers from subjective biases. There are two ways to reduce subjective bias. One is to average many independently compiled data sets. The other is to enrich the sample with scientific data.
机译：Huebner的文章是对有关加速，奇异性，灾难性等大量出版物的欢迎更改。人们普遍认为，在迅速变化的情况下，无法控制和灾难性地采用指数级失控模式。但是，休伯纳的方法存在一些困难。第一个与计数创新有关。 Huebner专门借鉴了Bunch和Hellemans编写的7198个“科学技术史上的重要事件”。编制“重要”事件列表是一个固有地遭受主观偏见的过程。有两种减少主观偏见的方法。一种是平均许多独立编译的数据集。另一种是用科学数据丰富样本。

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