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Forecasting the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in southern Europe: A learning curve approach

机译：预测南欧光伏系统的扩散：一种学习曲线方法

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摘要

Most analysts disagree upon whether photovoltaic systems (PV) will be able to play an important role in the energy scenarios of the future. A few scholars also question the appropriateness of policies that envisage the use of public subsidies to stimulate the growth of this industry and to accelerate market penetration. This paper contributes to this debate by examining whether carefully designed policies may initiate a process of large-scale diffusion of grid-connected PV, even without the deployment of external subsidies. Building upon a disaggregated characterization of the electricity market, it takes endogenously into account the learning curve phenomenon and simulates the diffusion of PV building-integrated systems in five European countries. The analysis is restricted to crystalline silicon systems and is repeated under four different macroeconomic scenarios corresponding to four different energy policies. The results suggest that already today there are opportunities for PV diffusion in many islands of the Mediterranean region, which may trigger sufficient scale economies to render the technology competitive in larger markets. They also show that the diffusion process could be accelerated through the implementation of carbon-tax policies that support initial penetration. The environmental benefits(net avoided CO_2 emissions over the system life cycle)associated with the forecasted penetration are also evaluated.
机译：大多数分析师对光伏系统（PV）在未来的能源情景中能否发挥重要作用持不同意见。一些学者还质疑设想使用公共补贴来刺激该行业的增长并加快市场渗透率的政策的适当性。本文通过检查精心设计的政策是否可以启动大规模并网光伏发电的扩散过程，甚至无需部署外部补贴，也为这场辩论做出了贡献。基于电力市场的分类特征，它内生地考虑了学习曲线现象，并模拟了欧洲五个国家中光伏建筑一体化系统的扩散。该分析仅限于晶体硅系统，并且在对应于四种不同能源政策的四种不同宏观经济情景下进行了重复分析。结果表明，如今在地中海地区的许多岛屿上已经存在光伏扩散的机会，这可能会触发足够的规模经济，从而使技术在更大的市场中具有竞争力。他们还表明，可以通过实施支持初始渗透的碳税政策来加快扩散过程。还评估了与预测的渗透率相关的环境效益（系统生命周期内避免的CO_2净排放量）。

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