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Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology

机译：技术预测技术与技术的匹配

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摘要

Technological forecasting (TF) has been acknowledged as an effective tool in setting technology strategies. A large number of techniques have been evolved for TF. The quality of forecasts would greatly depend on proper selection and application of appropriate techniques. The application demands that the technique used need to be time-, space- and technology-specific. An analysis of the limitations of TF is indicative of the fact that very little effort has been made to select an appropriate technique for a particular technology. Selection of an appropriate technique in a particular situation could affect the accuracy and reliability of the forecast. A methodology is suggested in this paper to match the technique to a technology by mapping both technology and technique characteristics on a common scale. The technique whose profile closely fits the technology profile becomes an obvious choice. This method will help in selection of complementary and appropriate techniques for a technology. Two specific technologies pertaining to Main Battle Tank (MBT) and Information Technology (IT) have been selected to illustrate application of proposed methodology.
机译：技术预测（TF）被公认为是制定技术战略的有效工具。 TF已经发展了许多技术。预测的质量在很大程度上取决于适当选择和适当技术的应用。该应用程序要求所使用的技术必须是特定于时间，空间和技术的。对TF局限性的分析表明，为特定技术选择合适的技术付出了很少的努力。在特定情况下选择适当的技术可能会影响预测的准确性和可靠性。本文提出了一种方法，通过在通用规模上同时映射技术和技术特征来使技术与技术匹配。轮廓与技术轮廓非常吻合的技术成为显而易见的选择。该方法将有助于选择一种技术的补充和适当的技术。选择了与主战坦克（MBT）和信息技术（IT）有关的两种特定技术来说明所提出方法的应用。

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