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Actors, decision-making, and institutions in quantitative system modelling

机译：量化系统建模中的参与者，决策者和机构

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摘要

Increasing realism in quantitative system modelling with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society. Yet, studies using quantitative system models, which have become a key analytical tool to support sustainability and decarbonization policies, focus on outcomes, therefore overlooking the dynamics of the drivers of change. We explore opportunities that arise from a deeper engagement of quantitative systems modelling with social science. We argue that several opportunities for enriching the realism in model-based scenario analysis can arise through model refinements oriented towards a more detailed approach in terms of actor heterogeneity, as well as through integration across different analytical and disciplinary approaches. Several opportunities that do not require major changes in model structure are ready to be seized. Promising ones include combining different types of models and enriching model-based scenarios with evidence from applied economics and transition studies.
机译：量化系统建模中有关行为者，决策者和机构的代表的现实主义越来越重要，这对于更好地理解向低碳可持续社会的过渡至关重要。但是，使用量化系统模型的研究已经成为支持可持续性和脱碳政策的关键分析工具，其研究重点是结果，因此忽略了变化驱动因素的动态。我们探索由于定量系统建模与社会科学的深入互动而产生的机遇。我们认为，通过基于角色异质性的面向更详细方法的模型改进以及跨不同分析和学科方法的集成，可以为基于模型的场景分析中丰富现实主义提供若干机会。准备抓住一些不需要对模型结构进行重大更改的机会。有希望的方法包括将不同类型的模型组合在一起，并用来自应用经济学和转型研究的证据丰富基于模型的方案。

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  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2020年第2期|119480.1-119480.10|共10页
  • 作者

  • 作者单位

    Univ Ca Foscari Venezia Dept Econ Venice Italy|RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm Milan Italy|Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC Lecce Italy;

    Univ Ca Foscari Venezia Dept Environm Sci Informat & Stat Venice Italy|RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm Milan Italy|Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC Lecce Italy;

    Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy PBL The Hague Netherlands|Univ Utrecht Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev Utrecht Netherlands;

    Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res ISI Karlsruhe Germany;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Modelling; Transition pathways; Scenarios; Actors; Institutions; Governance; ABM; IAM;

    机译：造型;过渡途径;场景;演员;机构;治理;反弹道导弹;我是;

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