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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Socio-technical scenarios as a methodological tool to explore social and political feasibility in low-carbon transitions: Bridging computer models and the multi-level perspective in UK electricity generation (2010-2050)
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Socio-technical scenarios as a methodological tool to explore social and political feasibility in low-carbon transitions: Bridging computer models and the multi-level perspective in UK electricity generation (2010-2050)

机译：社会技术情景作为探索低碳转型中社会和政治可行性的方法论工具：桥接英国电力生产中的计算机模型和多层次视角（2010-2050）

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摘要

Social acceptance and political feasibility are important issues in low-carbon transitions. Since computer models struggle to address these issues, the paper advances socio-technical scenarios as a novel methodological tool. Contributing to recent dialogue approaches, we develop an eight-step methodological procedure that produces socio-technical scenarios through various interactions between the multi-level perspective and computer models. As a specific contribution, we propose 'transition bottlenecks' as a methodological aid to mediate dialogue between qualitative MLP-based analysis of contemporary dynamics and quantitative, model-generated future pathways. The transition bottlenecks also guide the articulation of socio-technical storylines that suggest how the social acceptance and political feasibility of particular low-carbon innovations can be improved through social interactions and endogenous changes in discourses, preferences, support coalitions and policies. Drawing on results from the 3-year PATHWAYS project, we demonstrate these contributions for the UK electricity system, developing two low-carbon transition pathways to 2050 commensurate with the 2 degrees C target, one based on technological substitution (enacted by incumbent actors), and one based on broader system transformation (enacted by new entrants).
机译：社会接受度和政治可行性是低碳转型中的重要问题。由于计算机模型难以解决这些问题，因此本文提出了将社会技术方案作为一种新的方法论工具的方法。为了促进最新的对话方法，我们开发了一个八步方法程序，该程序通过多层次视角和计算机模型之间的各种交互来产生社会技术情景。作为一项具体的贡献，我们提出了“过渡瓶颈”作为方法论的辅助，以调解基于MLP的定性当代动态分析与定量，模型生成的未来路径之间的对话。过渡瓶颈还指导了社会技术故事情节的表达，这些故事情节建议了如何通过社会互动以及话语，偏好，支持性联盟和政策的内在变化来改善特定低碳创新的社会接受度和政治可行性。根据为期3年的PATHWAYS项目的结果，我们证明了这些对英国电力系统的贡献，开发了2种低碳过渡路径（与2 C目标相称），到2050年，一种基于技术替代（由现有参与者制定），一种基于更广泛的系统转型（由新进入者制定）。

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