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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Transformative policy mixes in socio-technical scenarios: The case of the low-carbon transition of the German electricity system (2010-2050)
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Transformative policy mixes in socio-technical scenarios: The case of the low-carbon transition of the German electricity system (2010-2050)

机译：社会技术情景中的变革性政策组合：德国电力系统的低碳转型案例（2010-2050年）

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摘要

Much research and policy advice for addressing climate change has focused on developing model-based scenarios to identify pathways towards achieving decarbonisation targets. The paper's first aim is to complement such model-based analysis with insights from socio-technical transition analysis to develop socio-technical storylines that show how low-carbon transitions can be implemented. Our second aim is to explore how policymakers could govern such transition processes through transformative policy mixes. We take the example of the transition of the German electricity system towards renewable energies, and elaborate two transition pathways which are assumed to achieve an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but differ in terms of lead actors, depth and scope of change: the first pathway captures the substitution of technological components (pathway A), while the second aims at broader system transformation (pathway B). We find that multi-dimensional socio-technical change (pathway B) requires greater emphasis on societal experimentation and a more proactive role for anticipatory deliberation processes from the outset. In contrast, shifting gear from a new entrant friendly past trajectory to an incumbent dominated pathway (pathway A) requires agency from incumbents and is associated with regime stabilizing instruments defending the old regime while simultaneously fulfilling decarbonisation as additional success criteria.
机译：解决气候变化的许多研究和政策建议都集中在开发基于模型的方案以识别实现脱碳目标的途径。本文的首要目标是用来自社会技术转型分析的见识补充这种基于模型的分析，以开发社会技术故事情节，展示如何实现低碳转型。我们的第二个目标是探索决策者如何通过变革性的政策组合来管理这种过渡过程。我们以德国电力系统向可再生能源的过渡为例，并详细阐述了两条过渡途径，假定这些途径到2050年可将温室气体排放量减少80％，但在主要参与者，变化的深度和变化范围方面有所不同：第一个途径捕获了技术组件的替代（途径A），而第二个途径则着眼于更广泛的系统转型（途径B）。我们发现，多维社会技术变革（途径B）需要从一开始就更加重视社会实验，并为预期的审议过程发挥更加积极的作用。相反，将齿轮从新进入者友好的过去轨迹转移到现有主导路径（途径A）需要现有者的代理，并与捍卫旧体制的政权稳定工具相关联，同时又要实现脱碳作为附加成功标准。

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  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2020年第2期|119259.1-119259.15|共15页
  • 作者

  • 作者单位

    Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res ISI Competence Ctr Energy Policy & Energy Markets Breslauer Str 48 D-76139 Karlsruhe Germany|Univ Sussex SPRU Sci Policy Res Unit Sussex Energy Grp Brighton E Sussex England;

    Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res ISI Competence Ctr Energy Policy & Energy Markets Breslauer Str 48 D-76139 Karlsruhe Germany;

    Univ Manchester SCI Manchester Lancs England;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Socio-technical scenarios; Transformative policy mix; German Energiewende; MLP; Energy system modelling; Transition pathways;

    机译：社会技术情景;变革性政策组合;德国Energiewende;MLP;能源系统建模;过渡途径;

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