...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Poorly known aspects of flattening the curve of COVID-19
【24h】

Poorly known aspects of flattening the curve of COVID-19

机译：扁平的曲线 - 19的曲线呈现出知名的方面

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

A negative correlation between the final ceiling of the logistic curve and its slope, established long time ago via a simulation study, motivated this closer look at flattening the curve of COVID-19. The diffusion of the virus is analyzed with S-shaped logistic-curve fits on the 25 countries most affected in which the curve was more than 95% completed at the time of the writing (mid-May 2020.) A negative correlation observed between the final number of infections and the slope of the logistic curve corroborates the result obtained long time ago via an extensive simulation study. There is both theoretical arguments and experimental evidence for the existence of such correlations. The flattening of the curve results in a retardation of the curve's midpoint, which entails an increase in the final number of infections. It is possible that more lives are lost at the end by this process. Our analysis also permits evaluation of the various governments' interventions in terms of rapidity of response, efficiency of the actions taken (the amount of flattening achieved), and the number of days by which the curve was delayed. Not surprisingly, early decisive response-such as countrywide lockdown-proves to be the optimum strategy among the countries studied.
机译：逻辑曲线的最终天花板与其坡度之间的负相关性，通过模拟研究成立，激动人心地看着Covid-19曲线的趋势。分析了病毒的扩散，用S形逻辑曲线适合于最受影响的25个国家，其中曲线在写作时（2020年5月中旬）完成的曲线超过95％。）之间观察到的负相关性最终的感染数量和后勤曲线的斜率证实了通过广泛的模拟研究获得了很久以前获得的结果。存在这种相关性存在理论论点和实验证据。曲线的平坦化导致曲线中点的延迟，这需要增加最终感染。通过这个过程，最终可能会丢失更多的生命。我们的分析还允许在响应迅速的情况下评估各国政府的干预，所采取的行动的效率（所达到的扁平化量）以及曲线延迟的天数。毫不奇怪，早期的决定性反应 - 如全国锁模 - 被证明是所研究各国之间的最佳战略。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号