A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change

Coccia Mario

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A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change

机译：长波大起因的理论：战争，通用技术和经济变革

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A debate exists in literature between the Goldstein's theory that Kondratieff-waves (K-waves) or Long Waves (LWs) are linked to hegemonic wars occurring in the final phase of ascending long cycles and studies that do not support this pattern. However, current theoretical frameworks have trouble explaining the sources of LWs with comprehensive and consistent arguments. This study proposes a theory that LWs are due to structural change of warfare that generates huge demand-side effects and powerful supply-side effects to support the evolution of General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) and clusters of innovation. In particular, the analysis here seems to reveal a sequential historical process that runs from wars performed by great powers, occurring in phases of instability of LWs (peak and/or trough), to GPTs and clusters of innovation in the trough of K-waves, which trigger the upward phase of new K-waves. Overall, then, the theory here can be useful for bringing a new perspective to explain, whenever possible one of the general sources of the evolution of LWs, rooted-in-war, that generates technological and economic change in society.

机译：戈德斯坦的理论认为，康德拉季耶夫波（K波）或长波（LW）与在长周期上升的最后阶段发生的霸权战争有关，而有关这一点的研究也存在文学之间的争论。然而，当前的理论框架难以用全面而一致的论据来解释轻武器的来源。这项研究提出了一个理论，即轻武器是由于战争的结构变化而产生的，它产生巨大的需求侧效应和强大的供给侧效应，以支持通用技术（GPT）和创新集群的发展。特别是，这里的分析似乎揭示了一个连续的历史过程，该过程从大国进行的战争开始，发生在轻型武器（高峰和/或低谷）不稳定阶段，再到GPT和K波谷中的创新集群。，这触发了新的K波的上升阶段。总体而言，这里的理论可能有助于带来一个新的视角，以尽可能地解释长期战争在世界范围内引起社会技术和经济变革的长期武器发展的一般来源之一。

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来源
《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2018年第3期|287-295|共9页
作者
Coccia Mario;
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作者单位

Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Long wave; Kondratieff waves; General purpose technologies; Wars; Goldstein's theory; Economic change; Technical change;

机译：长波;Kondratieff波;通用技术;战争;戈德斯坦理论;经济变化;技术变化;

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A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change

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