Traditional economic theory assumes that human beings behave rationally. That is, that they understand their own preferences, make perfectly consistent choices over time, and try to maximize their own well-being. This peculiar assumption has its roots in dusty essays like "Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk" (from 1738) by Daniel Bernoulli and scholarly tomes like Theory of Games and Economic Behavior by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern (published in 1944). The idea has some validity: traditional economic theory is good at predicting some market behaviors, such as how the demand for products like gasoline will change after a tax hike. But it's not very good at describing more-complex phenomena like stock-price fluctuations or why people gamble against the odds.
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机译：传统的经济学理论假设人类的行为是理性的。也就是说，他们了解自己的喜好，随着时间的推移做出完全一致的选择，并尝试最大限度地提高自己的幸福感。这个奇特的假设源于丹尼尔·伯努利（Daniel Bernoulli）的尘土文章（例如1738年的《关于风险计量的新理论的阐述》）和约翰·冯·诺伊曼（John von Neumann）和奥斯卡·摩根斯坦（Oskar Morgenstern）的博弈论，例如博弈论和经济行为论（1944年出版） ）。这个想法有一定的道理：传统的经济学理论擅长预测某些市场行为，例如加税后对汽油等产品的需求将如何变化。但这并不擅长描述更复杂的现象，例如股票价格波动或人们为什么要赌高赔率。
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