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Determining the likelihood of incidents caused by human error during dynamic positioning drilling operations

机译：在动态定位钻井操作期间确定人类误差引起的事件的可能性

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摘要

The probability of a human-caused incident occurring during dynamic positioning (DP) drilling operations is determined in this paper using binary logistic regression models built with data on 42 incidents that took place during the period 2011-2015. For each case, a range of variables characterising the configuration of the DP system, weather conditions and water depth are taken into account. These variables are taken into account to develop a logistic regression model that shows the likelihood of an incident being caused by human error. The results obtained show that human-based incidents are significantly more likely to occur when there is a lower usage of thrusters. These results are useful for focusing our attention on variables that may be associated with incidents attributable to human error, as well as for setting operational limits that could help to prevent these incidents and improve safety during these operations.
机译：在动态定位（DP）钻井操作期间发生人类引起的事件的概率使用在2011-2015期间的42个事件上建立的数据建立的二进制逻辑回归模型来确定。 对于每种情况，考虑到了一系列变量，其特征在于表征DP系统，天气条件和水深的配置。 考虑到这些变量，以开发一个逻辑回归模型，该模型显示了由人类误差引起的事件的可能性。 得到的结果表明，当出推进器的使用率较低时，人的事件显着更容易发生。 这些结果对于将我们的注意力集中在可能与归属于人为错误的事件相关的变量，以及设定可能有助于防止这些事件的操作限制并在这些操作期间提高安全性的操作限制。

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