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Britain's National Securitycompulsion And Discretion

机译:英国的国家安全强制与裁量权

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摘要

This article is intended to help the British defence planner today perform better according to the motto 'minimum regrets'. Because 'the future is a land no one has visited', he cannot help but make mistakes. However, mistakes in defence planning can range from the irrecoverable and catastrophic to the compensateable and merely annoying. For some kinds of errors one can find compensation elsewhere, for others one cannot. Fortunately, although the British defence planner cannot travel to the future to check on the accuracy of his anticipations and predictions, he can aspire reasonably to 'get the big things right enough'. For example, it may be a mistake for Britain to acquire only two large new aircraft carriers. Future strategic history may painfully reveal to the British armed forces that they are a carrier short, in the late 2030s say. Events, the great judge and jury of strategic planners, might demonstrate that the Royal Navy requires three, not two, of these super vessels. But, the difference between a needed three and extant two should be tolerable and compensateable. In contrast, the difference between three and only one or none plausibly could well amount to a disabling military shortfall. This paper seeks to provide markers of a most basic kind that may assist those charged with charting and commanding the British security course, especially on its military track.
机译:本文旨在根据“最小遗憾”的座右铭,帮助今天的英国国防计划制定者更好地执行任务。因为“未来是没有人去过的土地”,他不禁会犯错误。但是,国防计划中的错误可能从无法挽回和灾难性的变化到可补偿且仅是令人讨厌的变化。对于某些错误,人们可以在其他地方找到补偿,而对于其他错误,则不能。幸运的是,尽管英国防务规划师无法走到未来去检验他的预期和预测的准确性,但他可以合理地期望“使大事情做好”。例如,英国只购买两艘大型航母可能是错误的。 2030年代后期说,未来的战略历史可能会痛苦地向英国武装部队表明它们是航母的简称。大型战略法官和评审团的活动可以证明皇家海军需要三艘而不是两艘。但是,所需的三个和现有的两个之间的差异应该是可以容忍和可补偿的。相比之下,三者之间的差异,或者只有一个或没有一个之间的差异,很可能等于造成了严重的军事短缺。本文力图提供一种最基本的标记,可以帮助那些负责制图和指挥英国安全路线,特别是在其军事轨道上的人。

著录项

  • 来源
    《The RUSI journal》 |2008年第6期|p.12-18|共7页
  • 作者

    Colin Cray;

  • 作者单位

    University of Reading;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 军事;
  • 关键词

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