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Analysis of changes in the magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of heavy precipitation over the contiguous USA

机译：分析连续美国暴雨的幅度，频率和季节变化

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Gridded daily precipitation observations over the contiguous USA are used to investigate the past observed changes in the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation, and to examine its seasonality. Analyses are based on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) daily precipitation data from 1948 to 2012. We use a block maxima approach to identify changes in the magnitude of heavy precipitation and a peak-over-threshold (POT) approach for the changes in the frequency. The results of this study show that there is a stronger signal of change in the frequency rather than in the magnitude of heavy precipitation events. Also, results show an increasing trend in the frequency of heavy precipitation over large areas of the contiguous USA with the most notable exception of the US Northwest. These results indicate that over the last 65 years, the stronger storms are not getting stronger, but a larger number of heavy precipitation events have been observed. The annual maximum precipitation and annual frequency of heavy precipitation reveal a marked seasonality over the contiguous USA. However, we could not find any evidence suggesting shifting in the seasonality of annual maximum precipitation by investigating whether the day of the year at which the maximum precipitation occurs has changed over time. Furthermore, we examine whether the year-to-year variations in the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation can be explained in terms of climate variability driven by the influence of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Our findings indicate that the climate variability of both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can exert a large control on the precipitation frequency and magnitude over the contiguous USA. Also, the results indicate that part of the spatial and temporal features of the relationship between climate variability and heavy precipitation magnitude and frequency can be described by one or more of the climate indices considered here.
机译：连续美国的网格日降水观测用于调查过去观测到的强降水的频率和幅度的变化，并检查其季节性。分析基于1948年至2012年的气候预测中心（CPC）每日降水量数据。我们使用块极大值法来识别强降水量的变化，并使用峰值阈值（POT）方法来确定强降水量的变化。频率。这项研究的结果表明，频率变化的信号要强得多，而不是强降水事件的强度。此外，结果显示，美国西北部除美国西北地区最明显的地区外，大面积降雨的频率增加。这些结果表明，在过去的65年中，强风暴并没有变得越来越强，但是观察到了更多的强降水事件。每年的最大降水量和每年的强降水频率显示出连续美国的明显季节性。但是，通过调查发生最大降水的一年中的一天是否随时间变化，我们找不到任何证据表明年度最大降水的季节发生了变化。此外，我们研究了是否可以用大西洋和太平洋影响下的气候变化来解释暴雨频率和强度的逐年变化。我们的研究结果表明，大西洋和太平洋的气候变化都可以对美国附近的​​降水频率和强度产生很大的控制作用。同样，结果表明，气候变异性与强降水幅度和频率之间关系的部分时空特征可以通过此处考虑的一种或多种气候指数来描述。

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