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Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method and copula functions

机译：基于多重分形趋势分析和copula函数的吉林中西部极端降水事件时空特征

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摘要

Environmental changes have brought about significant changes and challenges to water resources and management in the world; these include increasing climate variability, land use change, intensive agriculture, and rapid urbanization and industrial development, especially much more frequency extreme precipitation events. All of which greatly affect water resource and the development of social economy. In this study, we take extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province as an example; daily precipitation data during 1960-2014 are used. The threshold of extreme precipitation events is defined by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. Extreme precipitation (EP), extreme precipitation ratio (EPR), and intensity of extreme precipitation (EPI) are selected as the extreme precipitation indicators, and then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is employed to determine the optimal probability distribution function of extreme precipitation indicators. On this basis, copulas connect nonparametric estimation method and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method is adopted to determine the bivariate copula function. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of single variable extremum and bivariate joint probability distribution of the extreme precipitation events. The results show that the threshold of extreme precipitation events in semi-arid areas is far less than that in subhumid areas. The extreme precipitation frequency shows a significant decline while the extreme precipitation intensity shows a trend of growth; there are significant differences in spatiotemporal of extreme precipitation events. The spatial variation trend of the joint return period gets shorter from the west to the east. The spatial distribution of co-occurrence return period takes on contrary changes and it is longer than the joint return period.
机译：环境的变化给世界的水资源和管理带来了重大的变化和挑战；其中包括气候多变性，土地用途变化，集约化农业以及快速的城市化和工业发展，尤其是频率更高的极端降水事件。所有这些都极大地影响了水资源和社会经济的发展。本研究以吉林省中西部地区极端降水事件为例。使用了1960-2014年的每日降水数据。极端降水事件的阈值通过多重分形趋势波动分析（MF-DFA）方法定义。选择极端降水（EP），极端降水比（EPR）和极端降水强度（EPI）作为极端降水指标，然后采用Kolmogorov-Smirnov（KS）检验确定极端降水的最佳概率分布函数。降水指标。在此基础上，使用copulas连接非参数估计方法，并采用Akaike信息准则（AIC）方法确定双变量copula函数。最后，我们分析了极端降水事件的单变量极值和双变量联合概率分布的特征。结果表明，半干旱地区极端降水事件的阈值远低于半湿润地区。极端降水频率呈现明显下降趋势，而极端降水强度呈现增长趋势。极端降水事件的时空差异很大。从西到东，联合回归期的空间变化趋势变短。同现返还期的空间分布发生相反的变化，并且比联合返还期更长。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第2期|597-607|共11页
  • 作者

    Guo Enliang; Zhang Jiquan; Si Ha; Dong Zhenhua; Cao Tiehua; Lan Wu;

  • 作者单位

    Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Changchun 130024, Peoples R China;

    Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Changchun 130024, Peoples R China;

    Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Changchun 130024, Peoples R China;

    Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Changchun 130024, Peoples R China;

    Jilin Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Environm Sci, Changchun 130024, Peoples R China;

    Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Changchun 130024, Peoples R China;

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