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Can reanalysis datasets describe the persistent temperature and precipitation extremes over China?

机译:重新分析数据集可以描述中国持续的极端温度和降水吗?

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摘要

The persistent temperature and precipitation extremes may bring damage to the economy and human due to their intensity, duration and areal coverage. Understanding the quality of reanalysis datasets in descripting these extreme events is important for detection, attribution and model evaluation. In this study, the performances of two reanalysis datasets [the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and Interim ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim)] in reproducing the persistent temperature and precipitation extremes in China are evaluated. For the persistent temperature extremes, the two datasets can better capture the intensity indices than the frequency indices. The increasing/decreasing trend of persistent warm/cold extremes has been reasonably detected by the two datasets, particularly in the northern part of China. The ERA-Interim better reproduces the climatology and tendency of persistent warm extremes, while the 20CR has better skill to depict the persistent cold extremes. For the persistent precipitation extremes, the two datasets have the ability to reproduce the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation. The two datasets largely underestimate the maximum consecutive dry days over the northern part of China, while overestimate the maximum consecutive wet days over the southern part of China. For the response of the precipitation extremes against the temperature variations, the ERA-Interim has good ability to depict the relationship among persistent precipitation extremes, local persistent temperature extremes, and global temperature variations over specific regions.
机译:持续的极端温度和降水可能会因其强度,持续时间和面积覆盖而对经济和人类造成损害。在描述这些极端事件时,了解重新分析数据集的质量对于检测,归因和模型评估很重要。在这项研究中,评估了两个再分析数据集[20世纪再分析(20CR)和临时ECMWF再分析(ERA-Interim)]在再现中国持续气温和极端降水方面的性能。对于持续的极端温度,这两个数据集可以比频率指标更好地捕获强度指标。这两个数据集已经合理地检测到持续的温暖/寒冷极端的增加/减少趋势,特别是在中国北部。 ERA-Interim更好地再现了持续极端寒冷的气候和趋势,而20CR具有更好的技巧来描绘持续寒冷极端。对于持续的极端降水,这两个数据集具有再现最大连续5天降水的能力。这两个数据集大大低估了中国北部的连续最大干旱天数,而高估了中国南部的连续的最大干旱天数。对于极端降水对温度变化的响应,ERA-Interim具有良好的能力,可以描述持续的极端降水,局部持续的极端温度以及特定区域的整体温度变化之间的关系。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第2期|655-671|共17页
  • 作者单位

    Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies, Xianlin Ave 163, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China|Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies, Xianlin Ave 163, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies, Xianlin Ave 163, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies, Xianlin Ave 163, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

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