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Projections of changes of areal evapotranspiration for different land-use units in the Wielkopolska Region (Poland)

机译：Wielkopolska地区（波兰）不同土地利用单位的区域蒸散量变化预测

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摘要

Strong global warming has been observed in the last three decades. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Moreover, climate projections for Poland foresee further warming as well as changes in the quantity as well as spatial and seasonal distribution of precipitation. This will result in changes in all elements of the water balance, including the areal evapotranspiration. For estimating the areal evapotranspiration, the heat balance method (HBM) is used in this paper for the growing season (March-October), whereas for the remaining months (November-February), evaporation is calculated according to the Ivanov equation. Values of areal evapotranspiration from selected land units are examined and compared for the average conditions in two time horizons, i.e. 1961-1990 (control period) and 2061-2090 (projection horizon) over the Wielkopolska Region in Poland, based on multi-model ensemble climate projections. Projections for the future, based on the MPI-M-REMO model, indicate that the regional average increases of the annual sum of areal evapotranspiration (connected mainly with an increase of air temperature) is equal to 45 mm, with the biggest changes during winter. In the growing season, the highest increases are expected to appear in July and June. As regards the spatial distribution, the highest increases are projected for the areas with presently highest evapotranspiration, e.g. the southwestern parts of the region.
机译：在过去的三十年中，全球变暖现象很严重。包括波兰在内的中欧也不例外。此外，对波兰的气候预测预计将进一步变暖，降水量的变化以及降水的空间和季节分布。这将导致水平衡的所有要素发生变化，包括区域蒸散量。为了估算区域的蒸散量，本文针对生长季节（3月至10月）使用热平衡法（HBM），而对于其余月份（11月至2月），则根据Ivanov方程计算蒸发量。基于多模型集成，检查并比较了两个时间范围（即波兰Wielkopolska地区的1961-1990年（控制期）和2061-2090年（投影范围））中选定土地单元的区域蒸散量值，并比较了它们的平均条件。气候预测。基于MPI-M-REMO模型的未来预测表明，区域蒸散量的年平均总和的区域平均增长（主要与气温升高有关）等于45 mm，冬季变化最大。 。在生长季节，预计最高增长将出现在7月和6月。关于空间分布，对于目前蒸散量最高的地区，例如，预计蒸散量最高的地区，预计增长最快。该地区的西南地区。

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  • 来源
    《Theoretical and applied climatology》 |2017年第2期|291-304|共14页
  • 作者

    Szwed Malgorzata;

  • 作者单位

    Polish Acad Sci, Inst Agr & Forest Environm, Bukowska 19, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland;

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