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The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts

机译：获胜者竞赛产生人群概率预测的希望

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This paper considers pick-the-winners contests as a simple method for harnessing the wisdom of crowds to produce probability forecasts (and be used as a business forecasting tool). Pick-the-winners contests are those in which players pick the outcomes of selected future binary events with a prize going to the player with the most correct picks. In contrast to soliciting probability forecasts from experts (for which competition among the forecasters leads to exaggerated and less accurate probabilities), this paper shows that competition among players is to be encouraged because it improves the accuracy of the resulting crowd probability forecasts. This improvement comes because the competition not only discourages the overbetting of favorites that occurs if prizes are awarded based on absolute performance, but also helps mitigate the public knowledge bias that occurs if everyone reports truthfully. In addition to the theoretical arguments, the paper analyzes picks from 6 years of pick-the-winners contests involving hundreds of players and 1037 college lacrosse games to find that the crowd proportions outperformed two benchmark sets of probabilities.
机译：本文认为“优胜者竞赛”是一种利用人群智慧来生成概率预测（并用作业务预测工具）的简单方法。获胜者竞赛是指玩家挑选未来的二元赛事的结果，并以最正确的选秀权将奖品分配给玩家的竞赛。与征求专家的概率预测（预测者之间的竞争导致夸大且不太准确的概率）相反，本文表明，应鼓励参与者之间的竞争，因为这会提高所得人群概率预测的准确性。取得这种进步的原因是，竞争不仅阻止了基于绝对表现授予奖品而导致的收藏夹的过分投注，而且还有助于减轻每个人如实报道时的公共知识偏见。除了理论上的论据外，本文还分析了6年的数百名选手参加的选拔赛和1037场大学曲棍球比赛的选秀权，发现人群比例超过了两个基准概率集。

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