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首页> 外文期刊>Theory and Decision >ON THE (SAMPLE) CONDORCET EFFICIENCY OF MAJORITY RULE: AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW OF MAJORITY CYCLES AND SOCIAL HOMOGENEITY
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ON THE (SAMPLE) CONDORCET EFFICIENCY OF MAJORITY RULE: AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW OF MAJORITY CYCLES AND SOCIAL HOMOGENEITY

机译：多数规则的（样本）交会效率：交替周期与社会同质性的替代观点

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摘要

The Condorcet efficiency of a social choice procedure is usually defined as the probability that this procedure coincides with the majority winner (or majority ordering) in random samples, given a majority winner exists (or given the majority ordering is transitive). Consequently, it is in effect a conditional probability that two sample statistics coincide, given certain side conditions. We raise a different issue of Condorcet efficiencies: What is the probability that a social choice procedure applied to a sample matches with the majority preferences of the population from which the sample was drawn? We investigate the canonical case where the sample statistic is itself also majority rule and the samples are drawn from real world distributions gathered from national election surveys in Germany, France, and the United States. We relate the results to the existing literature on majority cycles and social homogeneity. We find that these samples rarely display majority cycles, whereas the probability that a sample misrepresents the majority preferences of the underlying population varies dramatically and always exceeds the probability that the sample displays cyclic majority preferences. Social homogeneity plays a fundamental role in the type of Condorcet efficiency investigated here.
机译：社交选择程序的Condorcet效率通常定义为：在存在多数获胜者的情况下（或鉴于多数派是可传递的），该程序与随机样本中的多数获胜者（或多数排序）重合的概率。因此，在给定某些附带条件的情况下，实际上是两个样本统计信息重合的条件概率。我们提出了一个不同的Condorcet效率问题：应用于样本的社会选择程序与抽取样本的人群的多数偏好相匹配的概率是多少？我们调查样本数据本身也是多数规则并且样本是从德国，法国和美国的全国大选调查中收集的真实世界分布中得出的典型案例。我们将结果与关于多数周期和社会同质性的现有文献联系起来。我们发现，这些样本很少显示出多数循环，而样本曲解了潜在总体的多数偏好的概率却发生了巨大变化，并且总是超过样本显示出循环多数偏好的概率。社会同质性在本文研究的Condorcet效率类型中起着基本作用。

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