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首页> 外文期刊>Theory and Decision >Good decision vs. good results: Outcome bias in the evaluation of financial agents
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Good decision vs. good results: Outcome bias in the evaluation of financial agents

机译：良好的决定与良好结果：金融代理商评估的结果偏见

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摘要

We document outcome bias in situations where an agent makes risky financial decisions for a principal. In three experiments, we show that the principal's evaluations and financial rewards for the agent are strongly affected by the random outcome of the risky investment. This happens despite her exact knowledge of the investment strategy, which can, therefore, be assessed independently of the outcome. The principal thus judges the same decision by the agent differently, depending on factors that the agent has no influence on. The effect of outcomes persists in a setting where principals communicate a preferred investment level. Principals are more satisfied with the agent after a random success when the agent did not follow the requested investment level, than after a failed investment that followed their explicit request.
机译：我们在代理人为校长制定风险的财务决策的情况下记录结果偏见。在三个实验中，我们表明，委托人的评估和经纪人的财务奖励受到风险投资随机结果的强烈影响。尽管她对投资策略的确切了解，但因此可以独立于结果进行评估。因此，校长根据代理人没有影响的因素，代理人的决定不同。成果的效果仍然存在于主体传达优选投资水平的环境中。在随机成功后，校长在当代理人未遵循所要求的投资水平之后，校长比在明确要求遵循的投资失败之后，对代理人更满意。

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