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Impact of Climate Changes on the Regional Energy Balances and Energy Exports from Russia

机译：气候变化对俄罗斯地区能源平衡和能源出口的影响

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摘要

Based on the approaches developed by the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute (NRU MPEI) and the Energy Research Institute (ERI), the results of calculations of total world energy consumption and by groups of countries for the period up to 2050, with allowance for the anticipated climate changes, as well as resource and environmental restrictions, are presented. The estimates of energy consumption in various world regions for the period up to 2050 are based on a historical extrapolation approach to the research of energy consumption dynamics with allowance for the dependence of its optimal level on natural and geographical conditions. Using the SCANER simulation computer system developed by the Energy Research Institute for the study of energy markets, forecast fuel and energy balances for various regions have been made, which are aimed at meeting the national commitments on the Paris Agreement (2015) of the countries participating in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and international flows of the main energy carriers have been calculated. Estimates of the possible oil and gas export from Russia in the context of various scenarios for the development of the world energy sector have been made. It is shown that the fundamental processes currently taking place in the global energy complex, such as the development of new renewable and nonrenewable energy sources, the control and constraint on greenhouse gas emissions, and the uncertain status of nuclear energy, will contribute to an increase in demand for oil and, especially, natural gas from Russia and facilitate the rise in exports of these energy carriers, predominantly in the Asian direction.
机译：根据国立研究大学莫斯科动力工程学院（NRU MPEI）和能源研究所（ERI）制定的方法，计算世界各国在2050年之前的能源总消耗量，并按配额进行计算介绍了预期的气候变化以及资源和环境限制。直到2050年，世界各个地区的能源消耗估算都是基于对能源消耗动态研究的历史推断方法，并考虑到其最佳水平取决于自然和地理条件。使用能源研究所开发的SCANER模拟计算机系统来研究能源市场，已对各个区域的燃料和能源平衡进行了预测，目的是履行参与国对《巴黎协定》（2015年）的国家承诺联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）中的数据，并计算了主要能源载体的国际流量。在世界能源部门发展的各种情况下，估计了俄罗斯可能出口的石油和天然气。研究表明，全球能源综合体当前正在发生的基本过程，例如开发新的可再生和不可再生能源，控制和限制温室气体排放以及不确定的核能状况，将有助于增加俄罗斯对石油，尤其是天然气的需求增加，并促进了这些能源运输工具的出口增长，主要是向亚洲方向发展。

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