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Impact of Climate Changes on the Regional Energy Balances and Energy Exports from Russia

机译：气候变化对俄罗斯区域能源余额和能源出口的影响

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Based on the approaches developed by the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute (NRU MPEI) and the Energy Research Institute (ERI), the results of calculations of total world energy consumption and by groups of countries for the period up to 2050, with allowance for the anticipated climate changes, as well as resource and environmental restrictions, are presented. The estimates of energy consumption in various world regions for the period up to 2050 are based on a historical extrapolation approach to the research of energy consumption dynamics with allowance for the dependence of its optimal level on natural and geographical conditions. Using the SCANER simulation computer system developed by the Energy Research Institute for the study of energy markets, forecast fuel and energy balances for various regions have been made, which are aimed at meeting the national commitments on the Paris Agreement (2015) of the countries participating in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and international flows of the main energy carriers have been calculated. Estimates of the possible oil and gas export from Russia in the context of various scenarios for the development of the world energy sector have been made. It is shown that the fundamental processes currently taking place in the global energy complex, such as the development of new renewable and nonrenewable energy sources, the control and constraint on greenhouse gas emissions, and the uncertain status of nuclear energy, will contribute to an increase in demand for oil and, especially, natural gas from Russia and facilitate the rise in exports of these energy carriers, predominantly in the Asian direction.
机译：基于国家研究大学莫斯科电力工程研究所（NRU MPEI）和能源研究所（ERI）开发的方法，津贴全球能源消费量和各国群体的计算结果为了预期的气候变化，以及资源和环境限制。多达2050年期间各个世界地区的能耗估计基于历史推断方法，以实现能耗动态，津贴对自然和地理条件的最佳水平的依赖性。使用由能源市场的能源研究所开发的扫描师仿真计算机系统，已经制定了预测各个地区的燃料和能量余额，旨在履行参与国家巴黎协定（2015年）的国家承诺在有关气候变化（UNFCCC）的联合国框架公约中，已经计算了国际能源载体的国际流量。已经提出了俄罗斯可能的石油和天然气出口的估计，在各种情况下，为世界能源部门开发的各种情况。结果表明，目前在全球能源复合体中发生的基本流程，例如新的可再生能源和不可再生能源，对温室气体排放的控制和限制以及核能不确定的地位，将有助于增加根据石油的需求，特别是来自俄罗斯的天然气，并促进这些能量载体的出口增加，主要是在亚洲方向。

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