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Long-Term Development Prospects of Russia's Wind Energy in the Conditions of Expected Climate Changes

机译：俄罗斯风能在预期气候变化条件下的长期发展前景

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Abstract The climatic effect on the operation of wind power plants in Russia is analyzed. Based on the global experience of wind farms’ operation, a quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of electric power generation by modern wind turbines to wind speed variation is carried out. Using the ensemble approach, predictive estimates of changes in the wind fields in Russia are obtained for the 21st century using the results of general atmospheric circulation models participating in the international project CMIP5 (Coupled Multimodel Intercomparison Project Phase 5). The validity of the findings is ensured by the validation procedure, including a comparison of different versions of the multimodel ensemble with data reanalysis. The predictive estimate obtained for the climatic scenario developed at the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute (NRU MPEI) is compared with generally accepted climatic scenarios based on the use of so-called greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways. It is shown that the choice of the scenario has a significant impact on the forecast results. However, the data of the calculations distinguish several features of the wind regime in the 21st century, which are almost independent of the selected scenario or ensemble composition and, apparently, can be considered reliable. In particular, it is found that there is a possibility of some decrease in average wind speeds across Russia during the 21st century. However, in Primorskiy Kray, the expected climate change will lead to the formation of a zone with a steady increase in its speed. Changes in the technical wind potential in the regions of the country where the construction of wind turbines is planned will amount to from –15 to –20% for the subarctic regions and from +5 to +10% for Primorskiy Kray by the end of the 21st century. It follows from the calculations that the currently observed climate warming, in all likelihood, does not pose a serious threat to the development of wind energy in Russia. The modern and planned location of wind farms even makes it possible to expect some growth in their production rate in the first half of the 21st century. At the same time, the prospect of long-term changes in the wind regime should certainly be taken into account when selecting the wind farm location and predesign analysis as part of the measures aimed at adapting to climate changes.
机译：摘要分析了俄罗斯风力电厂运作的气候影响。基于风电场运作的全球经验，进行了现代风力涡轮机对风速变化的发电灵敏度的定量评估。使用集合方法，使用参与国际项目CMIP5的一般大气循环模型的结果，为21世纪获得了俄罗斯风野的变化的预测估计。通过验证程序确保了调查结果的有效性，包括与数据再分析的多模型集合的不同版本的比较。在国家研究大学莫斯科电力工程研究所（NRU MPEI）开发的对气候情景获得的预测估计与普遍接受的气候情景相比，基于所谓的温室气体代表浓度途径。结果表明，方案的选择对预测结果产生了重大影响。然而，计算的数据区分了21世纪的风制度的若干特征，几乎独立于所选择的场景或集合组合，显然可以被认为是可靠的。特别是，发现在21世纪，俄罗斯的平均风速有可能降低。然而，在Prigorskiy Kray中，预期的气候变化将导致形成速度稳步增加的区域。计划风力涡轮机建造的国家地区的技术风电位的变化将占亚神区的-15至-20％，以+ 5至+ 10％在末端kray到最后21世纪。从计算中，目前观察到的气候变暖，在所有可能性，对俄罗斯风能的发展并不会对风能的发展构成严重威胁。风电场的现代和计划地点甚至可以在21世纪上半叶预计其生产率的一些增长。 At the same time, the prospect of long-term changes in the wind regime should certainly be taken into account when selecting the wind farm location and predesign analysis as part of the measures aimed at adapting to climate changes.

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