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Demand of the power industry of Russia for gas turbines: the current state and prospects

机译：俄罗斯电力行业对燃气轮机的需求：现状和前景

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摘要

The use of gas-turbine plants (GTPs) in the power industry of Russia is analyzed. Attention is paid to microturbines and low-, medium-, high-, and superhigh-power GTPs. The efficiency of the gas-turbine plants of domestic and foreign manufacture is compared. The actual values of the installed capacity utilization factor and the corresponding efficiency values are calculated for most GTPs operating in the country. The long-term demand of the country’s electric power industry for GTPs for the period until 2040 is determined. The estimates have been obtained for three basic applications of the gas turbines, viz., for replacement of the GTPs that have exhausted their lifetime, replacement of outdated gas-turbine plants at gas-and-oilburning power plants, and construction of new thermal power plants to cover the anticipated growing demand for electric power. According to the findings of the research, the main item in the structure of the demand for GTPs will be their use to replace the decommissioned steam-turbine plants, predominantly those integrated into combined-cycle plants. The priority of the reconstruction of the thermal power plants in operation over the construction of new ones is determined by the large excess of accumulated installed capacities in the country and considerable savings on capital costs using production sites with completed infrastructure. It is established that medium- and high-power GTPs will be the most in-demand plants in the electric power industry. The demand for low-power GTPs will increase at high rates. The demand for microturbines is expected to be rather great. The demand for superhigh-power plants will become quantitatively significant after 2025 and grow rapidly afterwards. The necessity of accelerated development of competitive domestic GTPs with a wide range of capacities and mastering of their series manufacture as well as production of licensed gas turbines at a high production localization level on the territory of the country is shown. Considerable home demand for the power-generating GTPs and vast external markets will make the development of efficient domestic GTPs economically viable.
机译：分析了燃气轮机电厂（GTP）在俄罗斯电力行业中的使用。注意微型涡轮机和低，中，高和超高功率GTP。比较了国内外制造的燃气轮机的效率。对于该国运行的大多数GTP，将计算装机容量利用率的实际值和相应的效率值。确定了该国电力行业对2040年前GTP的长期需求。已经获得了燃气轮机的三个基本应用的估算值，即用于替换已耗​​尽其寿命的GTP，替换燃气和燃油发电厂中过时的燃气轮机设备以及建造新的火力发电站。满足预期的不断增长的电力需求的工厂。根据研究结果，对GTP的需求结构中的主要项目将是它们用来代替退役的蒸汽轮机电厂，主要是那些已整合到联合循环电厂中的电厂。相对于建造新的火力发电厂，重建运营中的火力发电厂的优先级是由该国的累计装机容量过剩以及使用基础设施完备的生产场地可节省大量资本成本所决定的。可以确定的是，中功率和高功率的GTP将成为电力行业最需要的设备。对低功率GTP的需求将以高速率增长。微型涡轮机的需求预计会很大。在2025年之后，对超大电厂的需求将在数量上变得巨大，此后将迅速增长。显示出有必要加速发展具有广泛能力的具有竞争力的国内GTP，并掌握其批量生产以及在该国领土上以较高的生产本地化水平生产许可的燃气轮机。国内对发电GTP的大量需求和广阔的外部市场将使高效的国内GTP的发展在经济上可行。

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