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To Avoid Global Warming by 2℃-Mission Impossible

机译：避免2℃引起的全球变暖-不可能的任务

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Investigations have been carried out into the basic implications of the decisions taken in December 2015 at the Paris conference of the countries-participants of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change for the world energy and for the atmosphere and climate. Based on the studied historical record of specific CO_2 emissions in the energy production by different countries, it is shown that the implementation of the Paris Agreement will require an unprecedented effort to modernize the global energy sector; in particular, rapid elimination of coal from the global energy mix and a substantially increased share therein of carbon-free energy sources (hydro and nuclear power and alternative renewable energy sources (renewables)) to one third by the middle of this century. We have developed a scenario for the global energy demand mix corresponding to the guidelines of the Paris Agreement and its more conservative variant extending the trend of the last 15 years. It has been established that, under any of the development scenarios, the global mean temperature is to exceed the level of 1.5℃ as soon as within a few decades. Using model simulations of the changes in the atmosphere and climate, we show that even the full implementation of the Paris Agreements will not prevent the increase in average global temperature by 2℃ as compared to the preindustrial levels. The world community faces a difficult choice between the implementation of more stringent measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which we believe to be almost unreal, and adaptation to utterly new climatic conditions, which will last for centuries to come.
机译：已对2015年12月在巴黎会议上做出的各项决定的基本含义进行了调查，这些决定是《联合国气候变化框架公约》的与会国与参与者对世界能源以及对大气和气候的影响。根据对不同国家能源生产中特定CO_2排放量的研究历史记录，可以看出，《巴黎协定》的实施将需要空前的努力来实现全球能源部门的现代化；尤其是要迅速从全球能源结构中消除煤炭，到本世纪中叶，无碳能源（水电和核电以及替代性可再生能源（可再生能源）的份额将大大增加）。我们根据《巴黎协定》的指导方针及其更保守的变体，为全球能源需求组​​合制定了一种方案，该方案延续了过去15年的趋势。已经确定，在任何发展情景下，全球平均温度将在几十年内尽快超过1.5℃。通过对大气和气候变化的模型模拟，我们表明，即使全面执行《巴黎协定》也不会阻止与工业化前水平相比将全球平均温度升高2℃的情况。国际社会面临一个艰难的选择，那就是实施更加严格的减少温室气体排放的措施（我们认为这几乎是不现实的）和适应将持续数个世纪的全新气候条件。

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