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How much of the future mortality toll of smoking can be avoided?

机译：可以避免吸烟的未来死亡率有多大？

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To determine how much future smoking-related mortality in the USA can be prevented, recognising that some of that future mortality results from past smoking.Employing a dynamic population simulation model, we estimate smoking’s expected mortality burden in the USA, measured as life-years lost (LYL), in a status-quo scenario run from 2018 through 2100. We then estimate LYL attributable to past smoking assuming that all smoking ceases at the end of 2017. We calculate the potential avoidable LYL, which we call the maximum potential reduction in premature mortality (MPRPM), as the difference between the two. We use data from the US Census Bureau, National Vital Statistics Reports, the National Health Interview Survey and Cancer Prevention Study II.Under status-quo assumptions, smoking will claim 305 million LYL in the US from 2018 to 2100. If all smoking ceased at the end of 2017, past smoking would be responsible for 191.8 million LYL. Thus, avoidable LYL by 2100—the MPRPM—would be 113.2 million, 37% of the expected toll of smoking. A sensitivity analysis finds that were the annual smoking initiation rate 3% instead of 7.8%, the MPRPM would be 13-14% lower. Were the annual permanent smoking cessation rate twice our status-quo estimate of 4.35%, the MPRPM would be 38-39% lower.Public health can address only the future toll of future smoking. Smoking’s MPRPM is the reduction in the mortality burden of smoking that tobacco control can strive to achieve.
机译：为了确定可以防止美国未来的未来吸烟有关的死亡率，认识到一些未来的死亡率从过去的吸烟产生。施用动态人口模拟模型，我们估计吸烟在美国的预期死亡负担，衡量为生命年份丢失（Lyl），在2018年至2100年的状态下运行。然后，我们假设所有吸烟停止于2017年底，我们估算了归因于过去吸烟的Lyl。我们计算了我们称之为最大潜在减少的潜在可避免的Lyl在过早的死亡率（MPRPM）中，两者之间的差异。我们使用美国人口普查局的数据，国家生命统计报告，国家卫生面试调查和癌症预防研究II.Undure-Quo假设，吸烟将在2018年至2100年美国举行3.35亿Lyl。如果所有吸烟停止2017年底，过去的吸烟将负责19180万Lyl。因此，通过2100-MPRPM-MPRPM-MPRPM的可避免Lyl为11.32亿，占吸烟的预期收费的37％。敏感性分析发现，年度吸烟起始率3％而不是7.8％，MPRPM将降低13-14％。年度永久性吸烟戒烟率是我们的地位估计为4.35％，MPRPM将较低38-39％。公共健康可以仅解决未来的吸烟。吸烟的MPRPM是减少吸烟的死亡负担，即烟草控制可以努力实现。

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