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Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study

机译：未来在英格兰的社会经济地位吸烟患病率：计算建模研究

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The difference in smoking across socioeconomic groups is a major cause of health inequality. This study projected future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status, and revealed what is needed to achieve the tobacco-free ambition (TFA) by 2030 in England.Using data from multiple sources, the adult (≥18 years) population in England was separated into subgroups by smoking and highest educational qualification (HEQ). A discrete time state-transition model was used to project future smoking prevalence by HEQ deterministically and stochastically.In a status quo scenario, smoking prevalence in England is projected to be 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 9.1% to 12.9%) by 2022, 7.8% (5.5% to 11.0%) by 2030 and 6.0% (3.7% to 9.6%) by 2040. The absolute difference in smoking rate between low and high HEQ is reduced from 12.2% in 2016 to 7.9% by 2030, but the relative inequality (low/high HEQ ratio) is increased from 2.48 in 2016 to 3.06 by 2030. When applying 2016 initiation/relapse rates, achievement of the TFA target requires no changes to future cessation rates among adults with high qualifications, but increased rates of 37% and 149%, respectively, in adults with intermediate and low qualifications.If the current trends continue, smoking prevalence in England is projected to decline in the future, but with substantial differences across socioeconomic groups. Absolute inequalities in smoking are likely to decline and relative inequalities in smoking are likely to increase in future. The achievement of England’s TFA will require the reduction of both absolute and relative inequalities in smoking by socioeconomic status.
机译：社会经济群体吸烟的差异是健康不平等的主要原因。本研究预计社会经济地位的未来吸烟普遍存在，并揭示了在英格兰2030年到2030年实现烟草无野心（TFA）所需的内容。使用多种来源的数据，英格兰的成人（≥18岁）分为亚组借助吸烟和最高教育资格（HEQ）。离散时间 - 过渡模型用于通过确定的和随机的HEQS将未来的吸烟患病率预测。在现状，英格兰的吸烟普及预计为10.8％（95％的不确定性间隔：9.1％至12.9％）到2022年，7.8％（5.5％至11.0％）到2030年和6.0％（3.0％（3.7％至9.6％）到2040年。低HEQ之间的吸烟率绝对差异从2016年的12.2％降低到2030年的7.9％，但从2016年的2.48增加到3.06到2030年的相对不平等（低/高HEQ比例）增加了2016年初的启动/复发率，即可实现TFA目标的成就在具有高资格的成年人中未来的戒烟率没有变化，而是增加分别在具有中级和低资格的成年人中分别为37％和149％。如果目前的趋势继续下去，英格兰的吸烟普及将在未来下降，但社会经济群体的实质性差异。吸烟的绝对不平等可能会下降，吸烟中的相对不平等可能会增加未来。英格兰的TFA的成就将要求减少社会经济地位吸烟的绝对和相对不等式。

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