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Relationships among overseas travel, domestic travel, and day trips for latent tourists using longitudinal data

机译：使用纵向数据的潜在游客的海外旅行，国内旅行和一日游之间的关系

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摘要

There is limited research on travel behaviors using longitudinal cohorts. Longitudinal studies on people who do not travel overseas as latent tourists have also rarely been attempted. This study investigated whether latent tourists substitute overseas travel with other leisure activities, such as domestic travel or day trips. Data from the National Survey of Tourism, collected between 2004 and 2016, were used. Twenty-one subgroups of tourists were identified based on birth cohort and household income level. The Bayesian logit model, which is suitable for longitudinal data, was used. The results of the analysis show that 1) domestic travel tends to be a complement to, rather than a substitute for, overseas travel, 2) day trips are substitutes for overseas travel for the younger generations, and 3) day trips were complements to overseas travel for older generations. This study allows tourism policymakers and marketers to establish new policies and strategies to improve the tourism industry.
机译：使用纵向队列的出行行为研究很少。也很少尝试对那些没有潜伏在国外的人进行纵向研究。这项研究调查了潜在游客是否用其他休闲活动（例如国内旅行或一日游）替代了海外旅行。使用了2004年至2016年收集的国家旅游业调查数据。根据出生队列和家庭收入水平，确定了21个游客分组。使用了适合纵向数据的贝叶斯logit模型。分析结果表明，1）国内旅行是对海外旅行的补充，而不是替代； 2）一日游可以代替年轻一代的海外旅行； 3）一日旅行是对海外旅行的补充老年人旅行。这项研究使旅游业的决策者和营销者可以制定新的政策和策略来改善旅游业。

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