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Relationships among overseas travel, domestic travel, and day trips for latent tourists using longitudinal data

机译：海外旅游，国内旅行和日前旅行的关系，使用纵向数据的潜在游客

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摘要

There is limited research on travel behaviors using longitudinal cohorts. Longitudinal studies on people who do not travel overseas as latent tourists have also rarely been attempted. This study investigated whether latent tourists substitute overseas travel with other leisure activities, such as domestic travel or day trips. Data from the National Survey of Tourism, collected between 2004 and 2016, were used. Twenty-one subgroups of tourists were identified based on birth cohort and household income level. The Bayesian logit model, which is suitable for longitudinal data, was used. The results of the analysis show that 1) domestic travel tends to be a complement to, rather than a substitute for, overseas travel, 2) day trips are substitutes for overseas travel for the younger generations, and 3) day trips were complements to overseas travel for older generations. This study allows tourism policymakers and marketers to establish new policies and strategies to improve the tourism industry.
机译：使用纵向队列的旅行行为研究有限。纵向研究在海外旅行的人，因为潜在游客也很少已经尝试过。本研究调查了潜在游客是否替代海外旅行与其他休闲活动，如国内旅行或一日游。 2004年至2016年间旅游调查的数据，于2004年至2016年间预测。基于出生队列和家庭收入水平确定了二十一组游客。使用适用于纵向数据的贝叶斯Logit模型。分析结果表明，1）国内旅行往往是一个补充，而不是替代，海外旅行，2）日旅行是年幼几代海外旅行的替代品，3）日旅行对海外的补充为老代旅行。本研究允许旅游政策制定者和营销人员建立新的政策和战略，以改善旅游业。

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