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首页> 外文期刊>The Transactions of the Royal Institution of Naval Architects,Part A:International journal of maritime engineering >A FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR ANALYZING BALTIC DRY INDEX IN THE BULK MARITIME INDUSTRY
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A FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR ANALYZING BALTIC DRY INDEX IN THE BULK MARITIME INDUSTRY

机译：一种模糊神经网络模型，用于分析散装海事行业波儿童干指标的模糊神经网络模型

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摘要

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one of the important indexes in the dry bulk shipping market. BDI analysis and forecasting is one of important activities of shipowners, charterers, shipping carriers, importers and exporters, and banks in the dry bulk shipping market. Based on the accurate BDI analysis and forecasting , the shipowners, charterers, shipping carriers, importers and exporters, and banks in the bulk shipping market could make many important decisions of shipping operation, management and financial invest such as building a new bulk carrier, chartering-in or chartering-out a second-hand bulk carrier, demolishing an old bulk carrier, and providing funding for shipowners. Thus, this paper adopts a fuzzy neural network model to analyze the relationship between the BDI in the international bulk shipping market and the major economic indexes in the global financial market. Finally, the proposed fuzzy neural network model is tested by empirical data during the period of 2000-2015. The results show that the fuzzy neural network model has high accuracy of forecasting. The fuzzy neural network model in this study seems to be promising and the model could help the shipowners, charterers, shipping carriers, importers and exporters, and banks forecast future BDI points in the bulk shipping market, and then make important decisions and operation strategies of shipping operation, management and financial invest.
机译：波罗的海干指数（BDI）是干散货市场中的重要指标之一。 BDI分析和预测是船东，租船，运输运输，进口商和出口商以及干燥散装航运市场的银行的重要活动之一。根据准确的BDI分析和预测，船东，租船，运输运输，进出口商和出口商以及散装航运市场的银行可能会使运输运营，管理和金融投资等许多重要决策，如建立新的散货承运人，租船-in或租赁二手散货，拆除旧散货载体，为船东提供资金。因此，本文采用模糊神经网络模型，分析了国际散货运输市场中BDI与全球金融市场的主要经济指标之间的关系。最后，在2000 - 2015年期间，通过经验数据测试了所提出的模糊神经网络模型。结果表明，模糊神经网络模型具有高精度的预测。这项研究中的模糊神经网络模型似乎是有前途的，而该模型可以帮助船东，租船，运输运输，进出口商和出口商，以及银行预测散装航运市场的未来BDI积分，然后做出重要决策和经营策略运输运营，管理和金融投资。

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