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Reliability Analysis of FPSO Components and Calibration of Safety Factors Using Response Surfaces

机译：FPSO组件的可靠性分析和使用响应面的安全系数校准

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In this paper a procedure is presented for the reliability analysis and calibration of safety factors for ultimate limit states of the hull and mooring system of an FPSO system. The formulation of the limit state equations is given first. The method of response surface (RS) is used to relate extreme environmental variables to bending moment on the hull and to tensions on the mooring lines. Second order polynomials are used for the RS, and its coefficients are estimated by regression using data from structural analyses. For the purpose of assessing the ultimate capacity of mooring lines, these are modeled as series system composed of many elements. The mooring's capacity is then estimated as a function of the number of elements and their individual tension resistances using extreme value theory. For the calibration of safety factors, a simplified method, -which decouples reliability analysis, is used. A hull model and three mooring system models at different water depths were used as an application example for calibration of safety factors considering metocean conditions of the Mexican region of the Gulf of Mexico.
机译：本文提出了一种用于FPSO系统的船体和系泊系统极限极限状态的可靠性分析和安全系数校准的程序。首先给出极限状态方程的公式。响应面法（RS）用于将极端环境变量与船体上的弯矩和系泊绳上的张力相关联。二阶多项式用于RS，其系数通过使用来自结构分析的数据进行回归估计。为了评估系泊缆的极限承载力，将它们建模为由许多要素组成的串联系统。然后，使用极值理论，根据元件数量及其各自的抗拉强度估算系泊能力。为了安全系数的校准，使用了一种简化的方法-将可靠性分析脱钩。考虑到墨西哥湾墨西哥地区的海洋环境，使用船体模型和三个不同水深的系泊系统模型作为安全系数校准的应用示例。

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