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From a feeder port to a hub port: The evolution pathways, dynamics and perspectives of Ningbo-Zhoushan port (China)

机译：从饲养端口到枢纽端口：宁波舟山港（中国）的演化路径，动态和视角

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摘要

This paper analyses the spatio-temporal evolution of Ningbo-Zhoushan port growing from a feeder port to a hub port finding the historical pathways followed by its expanding in terms of container throughput capacity and total traffic. The dynamic mechanism of evolution is the results of economic globalization, containerization and its natural endowments in channel and terminal depths. Analysis of the traffic evolution and its underlying dynamics suggest 3 periods in the development processes of container transport in Ningbo-Zhoushan: (1) adoption period (1986-2000) in which the main dynamics is the impact of the Chinese 'Open Door policy'; (2) acceleration period (2001-2008) in which the dynamics is related of the mainland China's entry into the World Trade Organization; (3) peak growth period (2009-now) in which the dynamics is impacted by the anti-crisis strategy against the financial and economic crisis in 2008. We analyse the perspectives of Ningbo-Zhoushan port. ARIMA model is employed to forecast the container traffic in the coming future; about after 2026, the throughput in Ningbo-Zhoushan port would reach about 49 million TEU which would be approximately equal to that of Shanghai port. The resultant port development would exemplify a model of spatial distribution such as a multi-layered gateway hub. In the respect of growth potential, Ningbo-Zhoushan port possesses excellent coastline resource suitable for deep-water berthing, bonded port policy and free trade zone policy. Geographical position, service level, hinterland economic level and government will support its perspectives.
机译：本文分析了宁波 - 舟山港口从进纸端口生长到枢纽港口的时空演变，找到历史途径，然后在集装箱吞吐量和总交通方面进行扩展。演化的动态机制是经济全球化，集装箱化及其自然禀赋的渠道和终端深度的结果。交通进化分析及其基础动态建议宁波 - 舟山集装箱运输开发过程中的3个时期：（1）采用期（1986-2000），其中主要动态是中国“开放门政策”的影响; （2）加速期（2001-2008），其中动态与中国大陆进入世界贸易组织有关; （3）峰增长期（2009年至今），其中动态受到2008年金融和经济危机的反危机战略的影响。我们分析了宁波 - 舟山港的视角。 Arima模型用于预测未来未来的集装箱交通;在2026年之后，宁波 - 舟山港的吞吐量将达到约4900万TEU，大约约同上海港港口。结果端口开发将举例说明诸如多层网关集线器的空间分布模型。在增长潜力的尊重中，宁波 - 舟山港拥有适合深水拦切，保税港政策和自由贸易区政策的优秀海岸线资源。地理位置，服务水平，腹地经济层面和政府将支持其观点。

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  • 来源
    《Transport policy》 |2019年第4期|21-35|共15页
  • 作者

    Feng Hongxiang; Grifoll Manel; Zheng Pengjun;

  • 作者单位

    Ningbo Univ Fac Maritime & Transportat Ningbo 315832 Zhejiang Peoples R China|Collaborat Innovat Port Econ Ctr Collaborat Innovat Port Trading Cooperat & De Ningbo 315832 Zhejiang Peoples R China|Ningbo Univ Subctr Natl Traff Management Engn & Technol Res Ctr Ningbo 315832 Zhejiang Peoples R China;

    Univ Politecn Catalunya BarcelonaTech Barcelona Sch Naut Studies BIT Barcelona 08003 Spain;

    Ningbo Univ Fac Maritime & Transportat Ningbo 315832 Zhejiang Peoples R China|Collaborat Innovat Port Econ Ctr Collaborat Innovat Port Trading Cooperat & De Ningbo 315832 Zhejiang Peoples R China|Ningbo Univ Subctr Natl Traff Management Engn & Technol Res Ctr Ningbo 315832 Zhejiang Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Bonded port; Free trade zone; Economic policy; ARIMA; Deep-water coastline; Evolution cycle;

    机译：保税港;自由贸易区;经济政策;阿里马;深水海岸线;进化周期;

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