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Assessment of factors associated with travel time reliability and prediction: an empirical analysis using probabilistic reasoning approach

机译：与出行时间可靠性和预测相关的因素评估：使用概率推理方法的经验分析

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Significant efforts have been made in modeling a travel time distribution and establishing measures of travel time reliability (TTR). However, the literature on evaluating the factors affecting TTR is not well established. Accordingly, this paper presents an empirical analysis to determine potential factors that are associated with TTR. This study mainly applies the Bayesian Networks model to assess the probabilistic association between road geometry, traffic data, and TTR. The results from this model reveal that land use characteristics, intersection factors, and posted speed limits are directly associated with TTR. Evaluating the strength of the association between TTR and the directly related variables, the log odds ratio analysis indicates that the land use factor has the highest impact (0.83) followed by the intersection factor (0.57). The findings from this study can provide valuable resources to planners and traffic operators in their decision-making to improve TTR with quantitative evidence.
机译：在建立旅行时间分布模型和建立旅行时间可靠性（TTR）的措施方面已经做出了巨大的努力。但是，关于评估影响TTR的因素的文献尚不完善。因此，本文提出了一项实证分析，以确定与TTR相关的潜在因素。这项研究主要应用贝叶斯网络模型来评估道路几何形状，交通数据和TTR之间的概率关联。该模型的结果表明，土地利用特征，交叉因子和张贴的速度限制与TTR直接相关。通过评估TTR和直接相关变量之间的关联强度，对数优势比分析表明，土地利用因子的影响最大（0.83），其次是交叉因子（0.57）。这项研究的结果可以为规划人员和交通运营商的决策提供有价值的资源，以利用定量证据来改善TTR。

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