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Factors affecting temporal changes in mode choice model parameters

机译:影响模式选择模型参数的时间变化的因素

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In travel demand forecasting models, parameters are often assumed to be stable over time. The stability of these parameters, however, has been questioned. This study investigates the factors affecting temporal changes in mode choice model parameters using a method proposed by the author that jointly utilises repeated cross-sectional data. In this method, the parameters are assumed to follow functional forms and the parameter changes are modelled endogenously. While the author's previous studies assumed that all parameters are the same function of the same variable, this study assumes that different parameters are different functions of different variables, including time (year) and macro-economic variables. The paper describes a case study of a journey-to-work mode choice analysis for Nagoya, Japan, that examines 288 combinations of the functional forms and variables. The analysis found that the functions of time had serious over-fitting problems and that parameter changes are more closely related to economic factors.
机译:在旅行需求预测模型中,通常假定参数随时间推移是稳定的。但是,这些参数的稳定性受到质疑。本研究使用作者提出的方法来研究模式选择模型参数随时间变化的因素,该方法联合利用了重复的横截面数据。在此方法中,假定参数遵循功能形式,并且参数更改是内生建模的。尽管作者先前的研究假设所有参数都是相同变量的相同函数,但本研究假设不同参数是不同变量(包括时间(年)和宏观经济变量)的不同函数。本文描述了一个针对日本名古屋的上班途中模式选择分析的案例研究,该分析研究了288种功能形式和变量的组合。分析发现,时间函数存在严重的过度拟合问题,并且参数变化与经济因素更紧密相关。

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