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Forecasting petrol demand and assessing the impact of selective strategies to reduce fuel consumption

机译：预测汽油需求并评估减少燃油消耗的选择性策略的影响

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The use of fossil fuels in transportation is an important topic as a result of growing concerns over global warming. Automobile petrol demand has been of particular interest to researchers and policy-makers, given that the automobile is a major contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect. This paper forecasts Australia's automobile petrol demand up to the year 2020 based on the best performing forecasting model selected out of eight models. In order to establish ways to reduce the demand for petrol, and the consequent by-product of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, we have estimated the impact on CO_2 for several potential policy instruments, using Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator (an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation programme). We find that a carbon tax of AU$0.50/kg can reduce automobile kilometres by 5.9%, resulting in reduced demand for petrol and a reduction in CO_2 of 1.5%.
机译：由于人们日益关注全球变暖，因此在运输中使用化石燃料是一个重要的话题。鉴于汽车是增强温室效应的主要贡献者，因此汽车汽油的需求已引起研究人员和政策制定者的特别关注。本文根据从八个模型中选择的最佳预测模型，预测了澳大利亚到2020年的汽车汽油需求。为了建立减少汽油需求以及减少温室气体排放量的副产品的方法，我们使用运输和环境策略影响模拟器（综合交通，土地使用和环境战略影响模拟计划）。我们发现，0.50澳元/千克的碳税可以使汽车行驶里程减少5.9％，从而导致汽油需求减少和CO_2减少1.5％。

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