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Violations of Expected Utility Theory in Route-Choice Stated Preferences: Certainty Effect and Inflation of Small Probabilities

机译：在路线选择陈述的偏好中违反期望效用理论：确定性效应和小概率膨胀

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摘要

Common travel-choice models are based on the maximum utility assumption. However, the use of expected utility theory in descriptive models of individual choice has been criticized by behavioral scientists and recently also by transportation researchers. The aim of this work is to examine whether violations of expected utility theory may be found in travelers' stated-preference behavior. In this work, a route-choice stated-preference experiment was conducted. A questionnaire, inspired by experiments of Kahneman and Tversky, presented simple route-choice problems. Evidence was found of two violations of expected utility theory. The first is known as the Allais paradox (certainty effect), which is demonstrated by a situation in which the extreme underweighting of high probabilities, which fall short of certainties, makes certain (low) travel time outcomes very attractive. Evidence of another violation of expected utility theory, inflation of small probabilities, is shown on the basis of a set of stated-preference route-choice problems. The experimental results may be explained by prospect theory, an alternative model of decision making under risk.
机译：常见的出行选择模型基于最大效用假设。然而，行为科学家以及最近的运输研究人员都批评了预期效用理论在个人选择的描述模型中的使用。这项工作的目的是研究在旅行者的陈述偏好行为中是否可能发现违反预期效用理论的现象。在这项工作中，进行了路线选择陈述偏好实验。一份由卡尼曼（Kahneman）和特维尔斯基（Tversky）的实验启发而来的问卷提出了简单的路线选择问题。证据表明，有两项违反预期效用理论的行为。第一种被称为Allais悖论（确定性效应），这种情况在以下情况中得到了证明：高概率的极低权重（缺乏确定性）使某些（较低的）旅行时间结果非常有吸引力。根据一组陈述的偏好路径选择问题，证明了另一个违反预期效用理论的证据，即小概率膨胀。实验结果可以用前景理论来解释，前景理论是风险下决策的替代模型。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation Research Record》 |2004年第1894期|p.222-229|共8页
  • 作者

    Erel Avineri; Joseph N. Prashker;

  • 作者单位

    Centre for Transport and Society, Faculty of the Built Environment, University of the West of England, Frenchay Campus, Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1QY, United Kingdom;

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  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 交通运输;
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