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首页> 外文期刊>Transportation Research Record >Transportation Network Evacuation Planning with Household Activity Interactions
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Transportation Network Evacuation Planning with Household Activity Interactions

机译：具有家庭活动互动的运输网络疏散计划

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摘要

An evacuation model that explicitly accounts for observed household interactions is presented. A series of linear integer programs determines household decisions of where its members will meet and how to organize the meeting logistics in the event of an evacuation. In the first mathematical program, the household selects a meeting location. In the second, the household members without vehicles are assigned to drivers. This second formulation results in an activity chain for each driver. These chains are then loaded onto the network using a microassignment simulation procedure that captures the resulting traffic interactions taking place in the network. An example is presented to illustrate the methodology; a network serving three business, six residential, and five school zones is examined. An evacuation during business hours is simulated using the activity chains for 20,000 households. Comparison of clearance times with different network loading strategies reveals that a minimum of 150% of the original demand should be used for evacuation planning purposes if no special considerations or adjustments to the network model are made. Modifying the network to account for unusual parking circumstances that may arise when parents pick up their children at school under emergency conditions may allow for a reduction in the amount of demand required for evacuation planning. The exact multiplicative factor depends on the loading scenario employed by the planning agency and any additional special emergency considerations that may be taken into account.
机译：提出了一种疏散模型，该模型明确说明了观察到的家庭互动。一系列线性整数程序确定家庭成员在哪里开会以及在疏散情况下如何组织会议后勤的决策。在第一个数学程序中，家庭选择一个聚会地点。在第二个步骤中，将没有车辆的家庭成员分配给驾驶员。第二种配方形成了每个驱动程序的活动链。然后使用微分配模拟过程将这些链加载到网络上，该过程会捕获网络中发生的最终流量交互。给出一个例子来说明该方法。考察了服务于三个企业，六个住宅区和五个学校区域的网络。使用活动链对20,000户进行了模拟，以模拟工作时间的疏散情况。通过比较不同网络装载策略的通关时间，可以发现，如果不对网络模型进行特殊考虑或调整，则至少应将原始需求的150％用于疏散计划。修改网络以解决家长在紧急情况下在学校接孩子时可能出现的异常停车情况，可以减少疏散计划所需的需求量。确切的乘数取决于规划机构采用的装载方案以及可能要考虑的任何其他特殊紧急情况。

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