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Evolution of plug-in electric vehicle demand: Assessing consumer perceptions and intent to purchase over time

机译：插电式电动汽车需求的演变：评估消费者的认知度和购买意愿

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摘要

The diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) is a topic that has received substantial attention in recent years. In part, this heightened interest reflects rapid concurrent developments in policy, technology, and industry strategies designed to spur the uptake of this radical, emerging technology. Governments from all levels are enacting various monetary and non-monetary incentives to encourage PEV adoption; developments in battery technology are likening the performance of PEVs to conventional vehicles; and all major vehicle manufacturers now have a PEV offering. Ultimately, however, the effect of these developments is contingent upon consumer interest. Thus, in this paper we study whether, alongside technology and market developments, consumer interest in PEVs has changed over time. To answer this question, we evaluate the degree to which intent to purchase or lease a battery electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, respectively, has changed between 2011 and 2017, and how the factors that explain variation in such intent have also changed over time. Our data come from two national surveys of potential car buyers in the 21 largest American cities. Among the key findings that we derive from the analysis are that, among survey respondents, intent to purchase a PEV has increased between 2011 and 2017, and perceptions about the trialability, observability, network effects, and policies explain an increasing share of the variation in intent to purchase as time evolves.
机译：插电式电动汽车（PEV）的普及是近年来受到广泛关注的话题。在某种程度上，这种日益增长的兴趣反映了旨在刺激采用这种激进的新兴技术的政策，技术和行业战略的快速同步发展。各级政府正在制定各种货币和非货币激励措施，以鼓励采用私立电动汽车；电池技术的发展正在将电动汽车的性能比作传统汽车。现在所有主要的汽车制造商都提供PEV产品。然而，最终，这些发展的影响取决于消费者的兴趣。因此，在本文中，我们研究了随着技术和市场的发展，消费者对电动汽车的兴趣是否随着时间而改变。为了回答这个问题，我们评估了2011年至2017年间分别购买或租赁电池电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车的意图变化的程度，以及解释这种意图变化的因素也发生了怎样的变化随着时间的推移。我们的数据来自对美国21个最大城市的潜在购车者进行的两次全国调查。我们从分析中得出的主要发现包括，在调查受访者中，购买PEV的意愿在2011年至2017年之间有所增加，并且关于可试用性，可观察性，网络效应和政策的看法解释了该变化的份额越来越大随着时间的流逝购买的意图。

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