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Urban bus ridership, income, and extreme weather events

机译：城市公交的乘车人数，收入和极端天气事件

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Climate change is projected to worsen weather extremes, such as heat waves and days of heavy precipitation, which could pose serious health and economic risks to U.S. cities. These extreme weather events could also affect urban mobility, since people who walk or bike may shift to public transit or avoid travel if they cannot afford a vehicle. To address these concerns, this study examines the effects of extreme weather events on bus ridership and the extent to which this relationship varies by income and destination. This study analyzes highly detailed micro-level bus data between 2012 and 2017 for a county in the Pacific Northwest using a negative binomial regression model. Results suggest modest reductions in bus ridership on very hot and cold days, as well as on days with heavy rainfall, with impacts differing between weekdays and weekends. Findings also show that bus ridership is more sensitive to extreme weather events in lower-income areas relative to the wealthiest neighborhoods, which may be partly driven by a large university student population who can ride the bus for free. Finally, results show that bus ridership around commercial areas and parks increases on very cold days and days with heavy precipitation, reinforcing the importance of public transit during these weather events. These results suggest extreme weather events affect urban mobility, with greater impacts in lower-income neighborhoods, parks and commercial areas. Transit agencies and policymakers should consider ways to increase accessibility and mobility during these weather events, especially for lower-income households.
机译：预计气候变化将使极端天气恶化，例如热浪和暴雨日，这可能给美国城市带来严重的健康和经济风险。这些极端天气事件也可能会影响城市交通，因为步行或骑自行车的人可能会负担不起车费而转向公共交通或避免出行。为了解决这些问题，本研究考察了极端天气事件对公交乘车者的影响以及这种关系随收入和目的地变化的程度。这项研究使用负二项式回归模型分析了太平洋西北部某县在2012年至2017年之间的高度详细的微型公交车数据。结果表明，在炎热和寒冷的日子以及大雨天，公共汽车的乘车人数都有所减少，工作日和周末的影响有所不同。研究结果还表明，相对于最富裕的社区，低收入地区的公交车乘员对极端天气事件更为敏感，这可能部分是由可免费乘坐公交车的大学生群体推动的。最后，结果表明，在非常寒冷的日子以及降水量大的日子里，商业区和公园周围的公交车人次增加，从而增强了在这些天气事件中公共交通的重要性。这些结果表明，极端天气事件影响了城市交通，对低收入社区，公园和商业区的影响更大。运输机构和政策制定者应考虑在这些天气事件中增加无障碍获取和出行的方法，特别是对于低收入家庭。

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