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Forecasting the impacts of climate change on inland waterways

机译：预测气候变化对内陆水道的影响

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摘要

Inland waterways are vulnerable to climate change as river navigation depends on water levels. Droughts can severely disrupt inland navigation services by reducing water levels either to completely non-navigable ones or to levels that oblige operators to reduce vessel load. We analyse the impacts of droughts induced by climate change using projections of river discharge data provided by eleven different climate model runs. We consider location specific characteristics by focusing the analysis on four specific locations of the Rhine and the Danube where a substantial part of the total freight activity in the European Union (EU) takes place. For the majority of the cases and scenarios considered, a decrease of the number of low water level days is projected, leading to fewer drought related disruptions in the operation of the inland waterway transport system. Although the uncertainties from the climate projections should not be neglected, the navigation sector could benefit from global warming which means that European inland waterways might be one of the few sectors where climate change can have negligible, or even positive, impact. The average economic benefit, for the cases considered, from the decrease of low water levels by the end of the century is projected to be almost (sic)8million annually.
机译：由于河流导航取决于水位，内陆水道容易受到气候变化。干旱可以通过将水平降低到完全不可通航的水平或迫使运营商减少血管负荷的水平来严重破坏内陆导航服务。我们使用11个不同的气候模型提供的河流放电数据的预测分析气候变化引起的干旱的影响。我们通过重点关注莱茵河和多瑙河的四个特定地点的分析来考虑定位特定特征，其中发生了欧盟（欧盟）的大部分货运活动的大部分运费。对于大多数情况和情景考虑来说，投射了低水位天数的减少，导致内陆水路运输系统运作的干旱相关中断较少。尽管不应忽视气候预测的不确定性，但导航部门可以从全球变暖中受益，这意味着欧洲内陆水道可能是气候变化可能可忽略不计，甚至积极，影响的少数几个部门之一。在本世纪末审议的情况下，对于案件的平均经济效益，预计每年几乎（SIC）8million。

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