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Evaluating resilience in urban transportation systems for sustainability: A systems-based Bayesian network model

机译：评估城市运输系统的可持续性抵御能力：基于系统的贝叶斯网络模型

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摘要

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian network model (BNM) to quantitatively evaluate the resilience of urban transportation systems. Based on systemic thinking and taking a sustainability perspective, we investigate the long-term resilience of the road transportation systems in four cities in China from 1998 to 2017, namely Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing, respectively. The model takes into account various factors collected from multi source data platforms involved in stages of design, construction, operation, management, and innovation in road transportation systems. We test the model with the forward inference, sensitivity analysis, and backward inference. The result shows that the overall resilience scores of all four cities' transportation systems are within a moderate range with values between 49% to 59%. Although they all have an ever-increasing economic level, the levels of transportation resilience in Beijing and Tianjin decrease first and then gradually increase in a long run, which indicates a strong multi-dimensional, dynamic, and non-linear characteristic in resilience economic coupling effect. Additionally, the results obtained from the sensitivity analysis and backward inference suggest that decision makers should pay more attention to the capabilities of quickly rebuilding and making changes to cope with future disturbances. As an exploratory study, this study clarifies the concepts of long-term multi-dimensional resilience and specific hazard-related resilience and provides an effective decision-support tool for stakeholders when building resilient infrastructure.
机译：本文提出了分层贝叶斯网络模型（BNM），以定量评估城市交通系统的抵御能力。基于全身思维和可持续发展的观点，我们调查了1998年至2017年中国四个城市的道路运输系统的长期复制，即北京，天津，上海和重庆。该模型考虑了从涉及的设计，建筑，操作，管理和创新阶段的多源数据平台收集的各种因素。我们用前向推断，灵敏度分析和向后推断测试模型。结果表明，所有四个城市运输系统的整体弹性得分在适度范围内，值为49％至59％。虽然它们都有不断增长的经济水平，但北京和天津的运输恢复程度首先减少，然后逐步增加，这表明了恢复力经济耦合的强大多维，动态和非线性特性影响。此外，从敏感性分析和后向推论获得的结果表明，决策者应更加注重快速重建和改变应对未来干扰的能力。作为一项探索性研究，本研究阐明了长期多维弹性和特定危害相关弹性的概念，并在构建弹性基础设施时为利益相关者提供有效的决策支持工具。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Transportation research》 |2020年第12期|102840.1-102840.21|共21页
  • 作者

    Tang Junqing; Heinimann Hans; Han Ke; Luo Hanbin; Zhong Botao;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Cambridge Ctr Smart Infrastruct & Construct Dept Engn Cambridge CB2 1PZ England|Swiss Fed Inst Technol Dept Environm Syst Sci CH-138602 Zurich Switzerland;

    Swiss Fed Inst Technol Dept Environm Syst Sci CH-138602 Zurich Switzerland;

    Southwest Jiaotong Univ Sch Transportat & Logist Chengdu Peoples R China|Imperial Coll London Dept Civil & Environm Engn London SW7 2BU England;

    Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Sch Civil Engn & Mech Wuhan 430074 Peoples R China;

    Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Sch Civil Engn & Mech Wuhan 430074 Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Resilience; Sustainable development; Transportation system; Bayesian network model; Systemic thinking;

    机译：弹性;可持续发展;运输系统;贝叶斯网络模型;系统思维;
  • 入库时间 2022-08-18 22:57:21

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