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首页> 外文期刊>Transportation Research >Hypothetical bias in Stated Choice Experiments: Is it a problem? And if so, how do we deal with it?
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Hypothetical bias in Stated Choice Experiments: Is it a problem? And if so, how do we deal with it?

机译：状态选择实验中的假设偏差：这有问题吗？如果是这样，我们如何处理呢？

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摘要

The extent to which Stated Choice (SC) experiments suffer from hypothetical bias continues to be a controversial topic in the literature. This research provides further evidence in this debate by examining the existence of hypothetical bias in a transport-related SC experiment. Data for this research were sourced from a University of Sydney study exploring the effect of exposure-based charging on motorist behaviour. The sample included 148 Sydney motorists who were recruited to take part in the 10-week GPS driving field study (Revealed Preference/RP data). In addition, participants were also required to complete an SC survey which was designed to mimic the RP decision context in order to capture what participants indicated they would do as opposed to what participants actually did in reaction to the charging regime. The current state of practice for measuring hypothetical bias in the literature is to compare aggregate differences in model outcomes using SC and RP data sources. Aggregate analysis is limited in its scope and does not allow for the calculation of the prevalence of hypothetical bias (i.e., how many participants are affected by hypothetical bias). This research is uniquely structured to allow for individual categorisation of hypothetical bias by comparing SC and RP data from the same sample for the direct purpose of investigating the prevalence of hypothetical bias. Furthermore, the extent to which mitigation techniques (cheap talk and certainty scales) influence hypothetical bias is also explored. The findings from this research show that the SC model estimates are prone to hypothetical bias and that the mitigation techniques have potential to compensate for this inherent bias.
机译：陈述选择（SC）实验遭受假设偏差的程度仍然是文献中有争议的话题。通过研究与运输相关的SC实验中假设偏差的存在，这项研究为这场辩论提供了进一步的证据。这项研究的数据来自悉尼大学的一项研究，该研究探讨了基于暴露的收费对驾车者行为的影响。样本包括148名悉尼驾车者，他们被招募参加了为期10周的GPS驾驶实地研究（显示的偏好/ RP数据）。此外，还要求参与者完成一次SC调查，该调查旨在模仿RP决策环境，以捕获参与者表示将要做的事情，而不是参与者实际对收费制度做出的反应。文献中用于衡量假设偏差的实践的现状是，使用SC和RP数据源比较模型结果的总体差异。汇总分析的范围受到限制，并且无法计算假设偏差的发生率（即，有多少参与者受到假设偏差的影响）。这项研究具有独特的结构，可以通过比较来自同一样本的SC和RP数据来对假设偏差进行单独分类，直接目的是调查假设偏差的发生率。此外，还探讨了缓解技术（便宜的谈话和确定性量表）对假设偏见的影响程度。这项研究的结果表明，SC模型估算值容易产生假设性偏差，并且缓解技术有潜力弥补这一固有偏差。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation Research》 |2014年第3期|164-177|共14页
  • 作者

    Simon Fifer; John Rose; Stephen Greaves;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (C13), The University of Sydney Business School, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia,Institute for Choice, University of South Australia, Level 13,140 Arthur Street, North Sydney, Australia;

    Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (C13), The University of Sydney Business School, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia;

    Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (C13), The University of Sydney Business School, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Hypothetical bias; Stated choice; Willingness to pay; Cheap talk; Certainty scales; GPS;

    机译：假设偏差;陈述的选择;支付意愿;廉价的谈话;确定性等级;全球定位系统;

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