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To travel or not to travel: 'Weather' is the question. Modelling the effect of local weather conditions on bus ridership

机译:出门旅行还是不去旅行:问题是“天气”。模拟当地天气状况对乘车人的影响

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摘要

While the influence of weather on public transport performance and ridership has been the topic for some research, the real-time response of transit usage to variations in weather conditions is yet to be fully understood. This paper redresses this gap by modelling the effect that local weather conditions exert on hourly bus ridership in sub-tropical Brisbane, Australia. Drawing on a transit smart card data set and detailed weather measurements, a suite of time-series regression models are computed to capture the concurrent and lagged effects that weather conditions exert on bus ridership. Our findings highlight that changes in particularly temperature and rainfall were found to induce significant hour-to-hour changes in bus ridership, with such effects varying markedly across both a 24 h period and the transit network. These results are important for public transport service operations in their capacity to inform timely responses to real-time changes in passengers' travel demand induced by the onset of particular weather conditions.
机译:尽管天气对公共交通性能和乘车率的影响一直是一些研究的主题,但对于交通状况对天气条件变化的实时响应尚待充分了解。本文通过对当地气候条件对澳大利亚亚热带布里斯班每小时的乘车人数的影响进行建模来弥补这一差距。利用公交智能卡数据集和详细的天气测量结果,可以计算出一组时间序列回归模型,以捕获天气条件对公交乘车者的并发和滞后影响。我们的发现突出表明,特别是温度和降雨的变化会导致公交乘车人数每小时显着变化,且这种影响在24小时内和公交网络中均存在显着变化。这些结果对于公共交通服务运营具有重要意义,因为它们能够及时响应因特殊天气条件而引起的乘客出行需求实时变化。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Transportation research》 |2018年第1期|147-167|共21页
  • 作者单位

    Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Inst Future Cities, Shatin, Hong Kong, Peoples R China;

    Univ Queensland, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia;

    Univ Liverpool, Sch Environm Sci, Dept Geog & Planning, Liverpool L69 7ZT, Merseyside, England;

    Univ Queensland, Sch Civil Engn, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Public transport; Weather; Time-series modelling; Travel behaviour;

    机译:公共交通;天气;时间序列建模;旅行行为;

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