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Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts

机译：拥堵价格预测的准确性

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This paper compares forecast effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were the traffic reduction in bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, the decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and potential traffic effects on circumferential roads. Comparisons of forecasts and actual outcomes show that the transport model predicted all of these factors well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme. The one major shortcoming was that the static assignment network model was unable to predict the substantial reductions of queuing times. We conclude that the transport model worked well enough to be useful as decision support, performing considerably better than unaided "experts' judgments", but that results must be interpreted taking the model's limitations into account. The positive experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges hence seem to be transferable to other cities in the sense that if a charging system is forecast to have beneficial effects on congestion, then this is most likely true.
机译：本文将斯德哥尔摩交通拥堵收费的预测效果与实际结果进行了比较。在设计拥堵收费方案时，最重要的问题是交通瓶颈的减少，公共交通乘客量的增加，市中心车辆公里数的减少以及对周向道路的潜在交通影响。预测结果与实际结果的比较表明，运输模型对所有这些因素的预测都足够好，以使计划人员可以就计划的设计和准备得出正确的结论。一个主要缺点是静态分配网络模型无法预测排队时间的大幅减少。我们得出的结论是，运输模型运行良好，足以用作决策支持，其表现要比独立的“专家的判断”要好得多，但是必须在考虑模型局限性的前提下解释结果。因此，从斯德哥尔摩的交通拥堵收费中获得的积极经验似乎可以转移到其他城市，在某种意义上，如果预测收费系统将对交通拥堵产生有益的影响，那么这很有可能是正确的。

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