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Risk and cost evaluation of port adaptation measures to climate change impacts

机译：港口适应措施应对气候变化影响的风险和成本评估

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The long term impact posed by climate change risk remains unclear and is subject to diverse interpretations from different maritime stakeholders. The inter-dynamics between climate change and ports can also significantly diversify in different geographical regions. Consequently, risk and cost data used to support climate adaptation is of high uncertainty and in many occasions, real data is often unavailable and incomplete. This paper presents a risk and cost evaluation methodology that can be applied to the analysis of port climate change adaptation measures in situations where data uncertainty is high. Risk and cost criteria are used in a decision-making model for the selection of climate adaptation measures. Information produced using a fuzzy-Bayesian risk analysis approach is utilized to evaluate risk reduction outcomes from the use of adaptation measures in ports. An evidential reasoning approach is then employed to synthesize the risk reduction data as inputs to the decision-making model. The results can assist policymakers in developing efficient adaptation measures that take into account the reduction in the likelihood of risks, their possible consequences, their timeframe, and costs incurred.
机译：气候变化风险所造成的长期影响仍不清楚，并且受到不同海洋利益相关者的不同解释。气候变化与港口之间的相互作用也可以在不同的地理区域内显着多样化。因此，用于支持气候适应的风险和成本数据具有很高的不确定性，在许多情况下，实际数据通常不可用且不完整。本文提出了一种风险和成本评估方法，可用于在数据不确定性很高的情况下分析港口气候变化适应措施。在决策模型中使用风险和成本标准来选择气候适应措施。利用模糊贝叶斯风险分析方法产生的信息可用于评估港口采取适应措施所产生的降低风险的结果。然后采用证据推理方法来合成风险降低数据，作为决策模型的输入。结果可以帮助政策制定者制定有效的适应措施，同时考虑到降低风险的可能性，可能的后果，时间框架和产生的成本。

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