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Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

机译：成本效益分析的旅行时间变异性预测

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摘要

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: Rl). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic 'regimes' (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.
机译：不可靠的旅行时间会给旅行者带来可观的成本。尽管如此，成本效益分析（CBA）往往没有考虑这些因素，或者只是以非常粗略的方式考虑了它们。本文旨在根据来自荷兰高速公路的行驶时间数据提供简单的规则来预测变异性。使用了两种旅行时间可变性的概念，它们在对驾驶员信息可用性的假设方面有所不同。第一措施基于这样的假设：对于给定的道路连接和给定的一天中的时间，预期的行驶时间在所有工作日中都是恒定的（粗略信息：R1）。在第二种情况下，假设预计的旅行时间反映了特定于一天的因素，例如天气条件或工作日（详细信息：FI）。对于这两种变异性定义，我们发现平均旅行时间是一个很好的预测指标。平均而言，更长的延迟与更高的可变性相关。然而，关于延迟的可变性的导数在延迟中减小。可以证明，该结果与平均延迟中观察到的流量“制度”（自由流，拥塞，超拥塞）的相对份额的差异有关。对于大多数CBA，没有有关交通制度相对份额的信息。然后，可以将基于平均行程时间的非线性模型用作近似值。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation Research》 |2012年第1期|p.79-90|共12页
  • 作者

    Stefanie Peer; Carl C. Koopmans; Erik T. Verhoef;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Spatial Economics, VU Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1/05, 108/ HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands,Tinbergen Institute, Gustav Mahlerplein 117, 1082 MS Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

    Department of Spatial Economics, VU Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1/05, 108/ HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

    Department of Spatial Economics, VU Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1/05, 108/ HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands,Tinbergen Institute, Gustav Mahlerplein 117, 1082 MS Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    travel time variability; cost-benefit analysis; traveller information; traffic regimes; speed-flow curve;

    机译：行程时间可变性;成本效益分析;旅客信息;交通制度;速度-流量曲线;

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